German Defense Minister warns of probable US disengagement in Europe

July 17, 2020

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Speaking to the European Parliament on Tuesday July 14, German Defense Minister Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer said that a gradual disengagement of the United States from Europe was likely, and whatever the result of the presidential election this fall across the Atlantic. Indeed, according to her, even if Democrat Joe Biden were to win, as the polls seem to indicate, it is likely that the disengagement of American forces in The Defense of Europe is inevitable, even if the tone of the Democrat will certainly be different from President Trump's today. The declaration of the German minister did not fail to react, especially across the Atlantic, where many voices wanted to emphasize the attachment of the Democratic candidate to his allies. However, despite these reassuring statements, it seems obvious that the United States has no other choice but to withdraw from Europe in the years to come. It is not a question of choice or political positioning, but of geostrategic imperatives.

Today, the United States deploys in Europe almost 64.000 men, or nearly 5% of its total troops, more than half of which are stationed in Germany, which remains the second country hosting the most American soldiers, 35.000, behind Japan, 55.000, but ahead of South Korea, 26.000. They were over 300.000 at the end of the Cold War, and even more than 100.000 in 2001. Asia has had a very different path, going from 100.000 to the turkey of the Cold War, to 78.000 today, and a remarkable stability since the beginning of the years 2000, despite the interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq. What was presented, in the early 2010s, as a pivot to the East on economic bases, was, in fact, the start of a process of competition leading towards the confrontation between the United States and the United States. China. This phenomenon subsequently accelerated as oppositions between American ambitions and those of Chinese President Xi Jinping emerged.