After more than 6 days of silence, President Trump finally spoke about the forced delivery of S400 systems to Turkey. But his statement leaves observers of American political life wanting more. Indeed, far from the expected global sanctions plan, because promised for several months by the US administration, the latter simply declared that Turkey will no longer be able to buy F35s from the United States. No reference to possible economic sanctions, no reference to possible operational sanctions, the American president seems to be suffering from an astonishing attack of aphasia on the subject.
The American State Department is hardly more verbose on the subject. Asked by journalists about the issue on July 16, Morgan Ortagus, the department's spokesperson, simply said that the administration was studying possible sanctions, and referred journalists to the CATSAA study to find out what those sanctions were. .
On the Turkish side, we are not adding fuel to the fire. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs simply recalled that Turkey had already invested more than $2 billion in the F35 program, and that the cancellation of the Turkish order would automatically increase the unit price of the aircraft.
The fact remains that, now that Ankara has the established position of the United States regarding the F35, the Turkish authorities will be able to openly negotiate the alternatives available to it, of which there are 3:
- The acceleration of TF-X program the model of which was presented during the 2019 Paris Air Show, designed in collaboration with BAe and Rolls Royce.
- Get closer to Beijing to acquire or co-develop the FC31, a 5th generation device intended for export, and whose general characteristics are very close to those of the TF-X
- Acquire the Su57 from Moscow, and co-develop the TF-X with Russia, which could represent a real opportunity for MIG which is struggling to establish itself on its domestic market
The choice that RT Erdogan will make in this matter will give precise indications on the real objectives of the Turkish president. Accelerating the TFX with the British would indicate a position of de-escalation towards NATO and the West in general. The rapprochement with Moscow would trigger a new crisis with Washington, with a very probable rapid exit of Turkey from NATO as well as from the Western sphere for an alliance with Russia. By choosing FC31, Ankara would take an intermediate position, with a probable eventual exit from NATO, and a rapprochement, if not with China, at least with Pakistan, and heightened regional ambitions.
One thing is certain, Washington has clearly lost the initiative in this matter, and today it is RT Erdogan who has the greatest number of options at his disposal.