The American authorities have reached a new level by now directly leading Turkey from “severe and massive” economic sanctions, in application of the CAATSA law, if Ankara persisted in wanting to acquire the S400 systems from Russia.
The spokesperson for the American State Department, Morgan Mortagus, declared on Wednesday 28 “ Turkey will face very real and very negative consequences if it persists in wanting to acquire the S400s", and to add " It's very serious, and very firm, and I believe that our position has always been perfectly clear on the subject.“. In addition to economic sanctions, Turkey would face expulsion from the F35 program, for which it has already paid more than $1,2 billion, and an embargo on the delivery of spare parts for the maintenance of its equipment. American origin.
On the Turkish side, officials repeat the same litany, according to which Turkey has fulfilled all its commitments to the F35 program and NATO, and that it is not incriminable, especially since the S400s are not will not be integrated into the NATO air defense network.
The fact remains that, as we have already discussed, the situation is becoming more and more inextricable, with the United States no longer able to turn back, like Turkish President Receipt T Erdogan, without seriously altering its political credibility. The appearance of NATO in the speech is not a surprise either, it is likely that this was one of the objectives of the Turkish government since the start of this crisis following the failed coup of 2015, and the subject on which President Erdogan remains convinced of American involvement.
To face American economic and technological threats, Ankara therefore has no other options than to move closer to Moscow and Beijing, which explains the numerous declarations to this effect made in recent months. Let us not forget, however, that a military and economic alliance between Moscow, Beijing and Ankara would profoundly upset the balance of power in Europe, as in the Middle East. This would be an unexpected opportunity, just a few years ago, to ban American ships from the Black Sea and challenge NATO's power in the Eastern Mediterranean. Let us also remember that Turkey is a country of 80 million inhabitants, a major asset for Moscow whose greatest weakness vis-à-vis NATO is its demographic weakness. Finally, we must not ignore the nuisance capacity of the Turkish diaspora in Europe, if tensions between Washington and Ankara were to spread to European countries.
Regardless, this semantic escalation does not bode well for the years to come.