The ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia under the aegis of Russia and the Minsk Contact Group will hardly last. If sporadic exchanges of fire were reported on both sides this weekend, the fighting resumed from the start of the week. And this Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced that drones and stray munitions deployed by his forces had destroyed more than 200 armored vehicles, as well as 2 Armenian S-300 batteries. Problem, according to independent observations, if one of these batteries was indeed deployed in Haut-Karaback, the other was in office on Armenian soil, constituting a first direct attack on Armenian soil since the start of the conflict, and potentially justifying a request for official military assistance from Armenia to the Collective Security Treaty Organization, therefore from Russia.
So far, Azerbaijan has been careful to avoid hitting Armenian soil, possibly to avoid Russian military involvement in the conflict. As for Russia, it had done everything to avoid having to officially take part, despite the treaty of alliance which binds it to Armenia. If the image of Russia in Armenian public opinion was severely tarnished, the legal aspect of Moscow's position is valid, since the conflict was taking place on territory conquered by Armenia, and not recognized by Russia. With the potential destruction of an S300 battery on Armenian soil, the Russian position is likely to become even more complicated, the latter being therefore required to intervene militarily if the Armenian authorities come to request it.
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