The dangers of the confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan

The armed forces of Azerbaijan and Armenia have been clashing since Sunday, September 27 around the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, an independentist enclave with an Armenian majority in Azeri territory, clashes that have already left dozens dead from either side. It is impossible to determine with certainty which country carried out the first offensive action, the cease-fire in force having been violated on both sides on multiple occasions in recent days, but we observe, on both sides, significant concentrations of heavy military means, raising fears of a large-scale confrontation, after the one which had left nearly 30.000 dead between 1988 and 1994.

Both Yerevan and Baku naturally accuse the other side of having started the conflict, and the two countries have announced the mobilization of reservists and declared a state of emergency. In addition, each camp engages in a media and propaganda war making use of both national media and social networks to present "its own truth", forcing the greatest caution in interpreting the statements and reports presented. So far, the fighting has been limited to air, artillery and drone strikes against opposing air defenses and armor. But each camp mobilizes significant mechanized and air forces, raising fears of a runaway conflict. Beyond the direct confrontation between the two enemy brothers of the Caucasus, it is the game of alliances that raises fears of the extension of the conflict, in a scenario that Europe historically already knows too well.

Attack of an Azeri convoy by Armenian artillery

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