While several pictures, whether taken from satellites or from passionate residents, show that the work on the new Chinese aircraft carrier, alternatively designated Type 002 or Type 003, is progressing rapidly, a series of satellite pictures from the CSIS group shows that since the beginning of 2019, the Jiangnan shipyards, near Shanghai where the Type 003 aircraft carriers and the LHD Type 075 recently launched, have started major works aimed at having a huge dockside work area in the extension of the basins where these sea giants are being built. As the Reuters signal, it is very likely that this work will be intended to accommodate the accelerated production of these shipyards, so as to have a veritable “Aircraft Carrier Factory” to use the terms used by one of the experts interviewed.
And the hypothesis raised here makes a lot of sense, insofar as, after having ensured its coastal protection by units of low to medium tonnage such as corvettes and frigates, it can now concentrate its efforts on the production of units of high tonnage, including destroyers Type 052D, Type 055 cruisers, Type 075 LHDs, and therefore future aircraft carriers. It should also be noted that it is after having modernized part of these same Jiangnan shipyards that the production of Type 052D destroyers and cruisers Type 055 has been accelerated, to the point of reaching today a launch rate estimated at between 8 and 10 ships each year.
This work also shows that even though in their official speech, the Chinese authorities do not report a Will shown challenge the United States, they are preparing their industrial tool to be able to do so in the medium term. The basin currently built and captured by the satellite's objectives, has dimensions that can accommodate 4, maybe even 5, major ships. This suggests at least one launch per year, between LHDs, aircraft carriers, and possibly deep-sea logistics vessels.
More than ever, the hypothesis of a Chinese navy aligning a dozen aircraft carriers, and 18 to 20 assault ships, seems accessible by 2040, i.e. 10 years before the objective of leveling off with the United States. United in 2050 announced by Xi Jinping. It remains to be seen whether the West, including the United States, will be able to react in time to this observation. Nothing is less sure ….