China could not seize Taiwan militarily in 2026 according to simulations

While the attention of European leaders and soldiers is now quite logically focusing on Russia and on the direct and induced consequences of the conflict in Ukraine, American strategists are above all committed to anticipating the evolution of the political standoff and potentially military between Washington and Beijing in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. The main subject of friction between the two world superpowers is none other than the island of Taiwan, which has been autonomous since 1949 after the nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek, defeated by the communist forces of Mao Zedong, left the continent. to install an autonomous government on the island. If, during the 90s and…

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For the head of the US deterrence, a conflict with China seems inevitable

Just a week ago, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, accompanied by a planeload of German business leaders, traveled to Beijing to meet his Chinese counterpart, President Xi Jinping, newly re-elected to lead the country for a term of 5 years. For the German head of state, it was above all a question of strengthening economic cooperation between the two countries, China being a critical market for German exports, and the proper functioning of both its economy and its industry. In Europe, this visit generated many reactions, with the concern of seeing Berlin increase its economic dependence vis-à-vis Beijing,…

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Will China increase its support for Russia in the face of Ukraine?

Since the beginning of the Russian offensive in Ukraine on February 24, the Chinese authorities have maintained a posture of benevolent neutrality vis-à-vis Russia. In accordance with official Chinese positions on the international scene, Beijing has repeatedly called for respect for the borders and territorial integrity of States, as well as for a negotiated solution. On the occasion of the XNUMXth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, which confirmed Xi Jinping's hold on the party and therefore on the country, the latter however significantly hardened his discourse vis-à-vis the United States and the West as a whole, particularly in the subject of Taiwan, and announced that an effort…

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Can Beijing impose a blockade on the island of Taiwan in the short term?

A few days ago, the American Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Gilday, insisted on the risks of a runaway hypothetical conflict between the People's Republic of China and Taiwan, on a shortened schedule. For the American officer, the US Navy now estimates that a Chinese offensive against the autonomous island since 1949 is probable by 2027, and could even intervene in the very near future, specifying that the window of opportunity had already started. His remarks were largely accredited by the declarations of President Xi Jinping on the occasion of the XXth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party, but also by the reorganization of the Chinese high command which followed him, putting at…

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What are the 4 pillars that will make China the world's military superpower in 2035?

With 2 million soldiers, less than 3000 modern tanks, a thousand 4th generation combat aircraft and only 2 aircraft carriers and around XNUMX destroyers, the Chinese armies are, on paper at least, far from representing an adversary potential beyond the reach of the United States, let alone the Western camp as a whole. However, the military construction undertaken by Beijing for thirty years is today the obsession of American soldiers and strategists, to the point that all the material and doctrinal developments undertaken across the Atlantic over the past ten years are only aimed at to contain the rise of the Chinese armies. In fact, beyond...

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New Japanese Defense White Paper names China and Russia as major threats

“If it goes without saying, it will go even better by saying it“. This famous sentence of Talleyrand pronounced by the French diplomat at the Vienna summit in 1814, could be the punchline of the new White Paper on Defense published in the land of the rising sun. Indeed, Japan, although traditionally discreet and circumspect on the international scene, is particularly directive and clear in this document which will frame the Japanese defense effort for the decade to come, by clearly designating Russia as an "aggressive nation". on the one hand, and China and its ambitions on Taiwan as a major threat to peace…

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Taiwan: When and how will China go on the offensive?

For several years, the tensions between Washington and Beijing around the Taiwanese question have continued to grow, to now become a subject constantly flirting with the casus belli, between the incursions of the navy and the American and allied air forces at sea. of South China and in the Taiwan Strait, the interceptions and the naval and air incursions of the People's Liberation Army around the island, and the successive and reciprocal responses as soon as Washington sends a new load of armaments, parliamentarians or members of the government in Taipei. The belligerent dynamic is such that from now on, the armed forces…

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How the Russian-Ukrainian war redrawn the world geopolitical map in a few days?

Beyond the heroic resistance of the Ukrainians and their president against the Russian forces, and the obvious change of strategy in the Kremlin's attack plan returning to a more conventional but also much more violent strategy vis-à-vis the civilian populations, Vladimir Putin's decision to launch this offensive against Ukraine has provoked, on an international scale, a geopolitical tidal wave of unprecedented magnitude since the fall of the Berlin Wall. Because if the Russian soldiers have seriously underestimated the resistance capacity of the soldiers but also of the Ukrainian civilians, the Kremlin has, for its part, deeply underestimated the unity and the response that will be demonstrated…

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Chinese President Xi Jinping steps up modernization of the People's Liberation Army

Over the past 10 years, the Chinese People's Liberation Army has undergone an unprecedented transformation, both structurally and technologically, with a very significant increase in the professionalization of the forces as well as the arrival of very many pieces of equipment on par with, and sometimes even exceeding, the best equipment in service in Western armies. In addition, the pace of this transformation remains very sustained today, with for example the entry into service each year of around ten Type 055, 052D and 054A destroyers and frigates, as well as 5 to 6 dozen J-10C, J-15, J-16 and…

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