Despite the tensions that have existed for more than a year between Ankara and Washington over Turkey's purchase of Russian S400 anti-aircraft and anti-missile defense systems, air force pilots continued to be trained on F35, and Turkish companies to supply spare parts for the program of which the country has been a member since the launch. But with the deadlines approaching, in particular those of the first deliveries of systems to Turkey, and faced with the intransigence of the two protagonists, the Pentagon had to react, and anticipate the probable American retaliatory measures against Turkey, particularly concerning this program, beyond the suspension of deliveries of F35As intended for the Turkish forces already applied for 1 year.
This is now done, the Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan having ordered the stop the training of 42 Turkish trainee pilots on F35 present on American territory, and to order them to leave US soil before July 31.
Obviously, the decision is accompanied by all the backpedaling measures required if the Turkish government were to give in to American demands, and give up acquiring the Russian S400s. At the suggestion of President RT Erdogan, following the ultimatum given by the United States, a contact group intended to “resolve the S400 problem” was set up between American and Turkish authorities. But at no time did the Turkish president suggest giving up this acquisition, which has now become symbolic in terms of both Turkish and American domestic policies.
The Turkish position is based on the fact that the country has respected all of its commitments, both to NATO and to the F35 program, and that the decision to equip itself with the Russian system is a matter of national sovereignty. . To perfect the message, President Erdogan also announced, two weeks ago, his intention to involve Turkey and its defense industry. to the S500 program, the most recent and most efficient of Russian anti-aircraft and anti-missile systems, statements immediately corroborated by V.Putin.
On the American side, the Turkish decision is considered potentially dangerous with regard to NATO and Western defense technologies, Russian systems having in fact access to information and characteristics of NATO aircraft, which can be used by Russia in its face-to-face confrontation with the West. In addition, it is a snub towards the Patriot PAC-3 offered to Turkey, but which was considered too expensive by Ankara, which also criticized its "black box" character leaving immense control to the American authorities on the system. Reasons why Washington has repeatedly threatened the country with reprisals, ranging from exclusion from the F35 program to a total embargo on American defense equipment, accompanied by economic sanctions in application of the CAATSA system. Furthermore, as the presidential campaign begins across the Atlantic, firmness is required in Washington.
But the consequences of this opposition can go far beyond this framework, since if the United States were to place Turkey under hostile economic sanctions, President RT Erdogan would have all the legitimacy and probable massive popular support to get the country to leave the NATO. However, Turkey has the second largest army in terms of numbers in the Atlantic Alliance, of which it is a founding member, and plays a strategic role in controlling the southern flank and the Black Sea by controlling the Bosphorus. , as well as in the Middle East, Turkish bases having often served as a base for Western actions in the region.
Worse, to be able to deal with economic sanctions from Washington, the Turkish authorities could be tempted to move closer to Moscow, a rapprochement already well underway, and to Beijing. In such a case, not only would the alliance lose an ally, but it would have to face a new adversary who is remarkably well positioned, and also until now very involved in NATO's military and technological processes. In fact, the knowledge accumulated by Turkish soldiers and engineers would represent an incommensurable mine of information for the Russian and Chinese forces and defense industry, likely to accelerate the current shift in the balance of power.
As we have already discussed, it is legitimate to wonder if this was not President Erdogan's objective since the start of this affair. Indeed, the latter harbors a tenacious grudge against the West and more particularly the United States and NATO regarding the aborted coup d'état of July 2016, which he considers to have been supported by Washington. If the temptation to leave NATO was strong at that time, President Erdogan did nothing, knowing that a significant part of the army would have immediately stood up against this decision, or even against him. Since then, the Turkish president has undertaken profound upheavals in the country's military headquarters, in order to remove officers deemed "unreliable" vis-à-vis the regime, while strengthening his control over political authorities, legislative and judicial systems of countries, through a constitutional reform passed in 2017, transforming the country from a parliamentary regime to a presidential regime with reinforced powers. Finally, as Vladimir Putin did before him, RT Erdogan ensured that he had broad media support, while eliminating the majority of independent or opposition media.
In fact, the current situation, and its probable future developments, do indeed seem to result not from a combination of circumstances, but from a plan methodically planned and implemented by the Turkish government and its president. And on purpose, because by leaving NATO, RT Erdogan frees himself from strong political and military constraints, and will then be free to implement his ambitious project aimed at restoring Turkey to its power and its borders of 1912. For this, it is imperative for him to be able to act freely in the Middle East, but also in Europe, particularly in Thrace, on the island of Cyprus and in the Aegean Sea.
What appeared until now as a working hypothesis, unfortunately seems to be taking shape before our eyes, while the logic created unfolds a long-written scenario.