While the developing crisis concerning the United States' exit from the INF Treaty focuses the attention of the specialized media, the Russian forces are very significantly strengthening their operational preparation.
The Russian Minister of Defense, General Shoigou, announced on the occasion of the start of winter training on December 3, that Russian forces will participate in more than 4000 exercises and 8500 operational training of all types during the year 2019. He also assured that surprise operational inspections will be maintained, so as to guarantee the operational readiness and rapid response capacity of the forces.
To these exercises and training, will be added deployments in conflict zones, whether in Syria officially, or in the Donbass, more unofficially. Let us recall that OSCE observers have on numerous occasions observed in the Donbass heavy equipment in service only with the Russian armies, such as the TOSS rocket launcher, or the T72B3M tank.
This effort to prepare forces is accompanied by an effort unprecedented since the end of the Soviet Union in terms of equipment. The Russian armies will, in fact, receive $20 billion in new equipment during the year 2019, almost 3 times the budget dedicated to programs with major effects in France, even though Russian equipment is between 2 and 3 times cheaper than Western equipment once the dollar conversion is made.
At the same time, the Minister of Defense announced a new plan intended to support military families, an announcement widely awaited by professional soldiers now representing more than 60% of the Russian armed forces.
In barely 10 years, since the reforms of 2008 following the war against Georgia, the operational response capabilities of Russian forces have increased very significantly. Thus, in September 2018, the Vostok 2018 exercise brought together almost 300.000 Russian soldiers, of which 100.000 had been deployed in the plains of eastern Siberia.
This operational preparation particularly worries the Ukrainian Chief of Staff, General Viktor Muzhenko, especially since, according to him, the Russian forces have formed a new “breakthrough” armored division, made up of 2 combat tank regiments, and two regiments of mechanized infantry, positioned a stone's throw from the Ukrainian border. More than ever, the Ukrainian general staff fears that Russia will take action aimed at linking Russia and Crimea, and incidentally, depriving Ukraine of access to the Sea of Azov.
However, certain reservations must be taken with these statements, as Ukraine has already on several occasions announced the imminence of a Russian offensive in the south of the country.
It is, however, certain that the very significant efforts of the Russian armies to have forces at an operational and responsive level are not intended only to change the story on the international media scene. It remains to determine the proven objectives, and to prepare for them…