On the occasion of his visit to Washington on September 18, Polish President Andrzej Duda reiterated the offer made to President Trump for a permanent deployment of an American brigade on Polish soil, in exchange for a financial participation from Warsaw of $2 billion. If the proposal had not been noted when it was made during the NATO summit in Brussels, it now appears that it has indeed caught the attention of President Trump, whose ego was probably flattered when the Polish president proposed naming the US base “Fort Trump”
But it is above all the circumstances surrounding this offer that lead President Trump to change his mind. On the one hand, such a deployment would most likely be to the detriment of the permanent forces stationed in Germany. However, relations between Washington and Berlin are today at their lowest. The US administration firmly criticizes the German authorities for their lack of involvement in European defense and in NATO, as well as the budget devoted to Defense by Germany considered too low. If it is true that the German armies have, like all European armies, faced severe budgetary restrictions, we cannot help but note the difference in treatment between Germany and Italy, the latter having nevertheless announced that it would keep a defense budget below 1,5% of its GDP, less than the German objective of 1,5% in 2025.
On the Russian side, it is obvious that such a deployment of American forces in Poland would be likely to increase tensions on the border line, and that Moscow will retaliate by also increasing the already significant presence of units facing the European border. .
But it is above all from a European point of view that the measure would be most effective. Indeed, by asking Washington to deploy its troops in Poland, Warsaw is sending a clear message carried by President Macron and Chancellor Merkel, according to which Poland, like the majority of Eastern European countries, is not considering their defense today, and in the near future, only in NATO through an intense partnership with the United States. This position must be compared to the Italian declarations on the subject of an “anti-Macron/Merkel” front supported by President Trump, or to those made during the European summit last month, by the “coalition” bringing together Italy, the Poland and Hungary.
In fact, the implications of a possible permanent deployment of US forces in Poland go far beyond the Polish framework, and are akin to an alliance of cause to stand up, within the EU, to initiatives aimed at bringing Europe towards strategic autonomy.
In fact, the essential construction of the Europe of Defense, to be carried out, must imperatively be carried out in Europe, but not “by” the European Union. It will have to rely on a core of countries around the Franco-German couple, or even on this couple initially, and constitute an attractive offer to bring together, little by little, the other countries of the Union, and why not others. countries like Switzerland. But for this it will be necessary to align the public opinions of the two European economic leaders so as to create a solid dynamic going beyond the increasingly marked political divisions, even if it means having to dent the perceptual bubble of global security of Europeans, for the most part perfectly unconscious of current geopolitical developments.
If the deployment of American forces in Poland is not the responsibility of Europeans, the fact remains that its consequences would affect first and foremost the European Union. The conclusion of this case, like its progress, will certainly provide us with clarification on the motivations of each person, their determinations and their objectives. To be followed with great attention..