Tensions between loyalist forces and pro-Russian rebel forces have continued to increase in recent days in Ukraine, and more precisely on the front line separating the forces present in Donbass.
The end of summer and the beginning of autumn have always brought an increase in tensions in this region. And for good reason, it is a very favorable period for Russian, or pro-Russian, military action in Ukraine, since it is bordered by the arrival of winter and Ukrainian dependence on Russian gas, thus preventing any stagnation in the conflict. .
Beyond this annual factor, several cyclical factors increase the risk this year, such as tensions between the United States and Russia and the risk of monetary war against the ruble led by Washington, and which could well induce Moscow into military action in order to maintain a margin of diplomatic maneuver and, above all, credibility in matters of internal politics to deal with the social and economic crisis that would result. On the other hand, the Kremlin could be tempted by military action aimed at weakening the credibility of the Ukrainian government, so that the 2019 elections can bring to power a new president with the mandate to negotiate an end to the conflict, which is not at all the mandate given to P.Poroshenko. Finally, the Kremlin could decide that it now has sufficient means to seize the territories stretching from Donbass to Crimea, in order to connect the latter to Russian territory, to completely Russianize the Sea of Azov, and to strengthen its position. military in Europe.
It is in this already very tense context that the assassination of Alexander Zakharchenko, one of the leaders of the rebellion in Donbass, intervenes. As is often the case in this case, the denials follow one another and are similar, each accusing the other of murder to encourage the use of armed force.
In any case, between the Russian show of force which will take place in eastern Siberia next week with the Vostok 2018 exercise, and the rise in power of the Ukrainian armed forces, which no longer have much to do with each other today. with the disorganized and poorly armed force of 2015, we now have two belligerents ready to fight, and very few initiatives in favor of peace in this region. However, if a war truly pitted Ukrainian and Russian forces against each other, it would very likely be a catastrophe unprecedented in Europe for 50 years.
It is regrettable that Europe, more particularly the Franco-German couple, has not yet taken the initiative to deploy an interposition force intended to prevent any situation from spilling over with dramatic consequences. An operation which, by the way, could also rely on China, for which a crisis in Europe today would be very harmful, and which would not miss such an opportunity to play a major role in world diplomacy with the 'Europe.