Like last year, Russia will hold a very important military exercise in September. This exercise, which will be held in eastern Siberia, in collaboration with Chinese and Mongolian forces, is presented as the largest exercise of Russian forces since the 1981 Soviet exercise, at the height of the Cold War, according to the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, General Shoigu.
Last year, Zapad 2017 was held on the coast of the Baltic Sea and in Belarus, which participated in the exercise, and had put under tension the forces and headquarters of NATO and European countries for a full week. In addition, jamming exercises had rendered GSM and GPS services inoperable in part of Finnish and Norwegian territory and in the Baltic countries.
By moving the exercise to the East, Moscow shows that its only point of interest is not Europe, and that it intends to be present in the balance of power which is emerging in the Pacific between Beijing and Washington . The participation of Chinese forces in the exercise is also a sign of the very good understanding between the two countries, even though the PLA was not invited to the RIMPAC 2018 exercise.
One thing is certain, if the rapprochement between Beijing and Moscow strengthens, the geopolitical result would be eminently problematic for the West. But this rapprochement, despite everything, faces numerous obstacles. Firstly, Russian public opinion, which is very circumspect on the subject, and which naturally feels much more “European” than Asian. Then, the demographic and economic gradient would be such between the two allies that Russia would quickly be relegated to a rank comparable to that of France, Germany or Great Britain for the United States, a very unappealing prospect. for Russian leaders. Finally, tensions between Russian and Chinese populations in the fertile eastern plains of Russia are already exacerbated, and would be reinforced by such an alliance. Indeed, the number of Chinese nationals living and working in Russia is already higher than the number of Russians in 3 of the oblasts of Eastern Siberia.
This alliance between the two great opponents of Washington therefore appears more like an alliance of circumstance, than a de facto alliance. The proximity between Russia and India reinforces this observation, while tensions between New Delhi and Beijing have continued to increase in recent years.
This upcoming exercise will certainly be an opportunity to get a more precise idea of the state of cooperation between the Sino-Russian forces, as well as the effectiveness of the new equipment received by the Russian forces this year.