China could not seize Taiwan militarily in 2026 according to simulations

In the event of a China-Taiwan conflict, the People's Liberation Army cannot hope for military success in 2026, even in the event of a blockade of Taiwan, according to simulations conducted by CSIS.

While the attention of European leaders and soldiers is now quite logically focusing on Russia and on the direct and induced consequences of the conflict in Ukraine, American strategists are above all committed to anticipating the evolution of the political standoff and potentially military between Washington and Beijing in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean.

The main subject of friction between the two world superpowers is none other than the island of Taiwan, which has been autonomous since 1949 after the nationalist forces of Chiang Kai-shek, defeated by the communist forces of Mao Zedong, left the continent to settle on the island an autonomous government.

If, during the 90s and 2000s, cooperation between Taipei and Beijing was one of the pillars of the Chinese economic revolution, to the benefit of the two protagonists, the People's Republic of China never abandoned its ambitions of reunification, by making the one of the pillars of negotiations with the United States in the early 70s to counter Soviet power.

Tensions have increased significantly on the subject with the coming to power of President Xi Jinping, who from his first term in office made the recovery of Taiwan to make it a province of the People's Republic of China, a strategic objective, even if it was necessary, for that, to go through an armed intervention.

At the same time, the Chinese armed forces, supported by a very dynamic industry and by remarkable planning, have known a dazzling progression, in particular by the forced march construction of a high seas fleet of first rank, and of a air force just as efficient and dimensioned.

So much so that the highest Pentagon officers in charge of this theater have openly warned of the risk of conflict around Taiwan in the short term, the United States having assured the country of its protection in the event of Chinese military aggression.

It is in this context that the American think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a series of simulations to assess what could be the consequences of an amphibious and airborne military assault by the forces of the People's Liberation Army against Taiwan in 2026, as well as those of an American and Japanese intervention to come to the aid of their ally.

The date of 2026 is not insignificant, since Admiral Phil Davidson, then commander of the American forces in the Pacific, had declared in 2021 thata Chinese military intervention against Taiwan could take place before 2027, year resumed, since, by the US Navy et the US Air Force as a pivotal date for a potential force changeover in the Pacific.

In addition, President Xi Jinping's 3rd term will also end in 2027, when the latter had the Chinese constitution amended to allow him to run for a new term beyond the two scheduled.

Without being in fact surprising in the least, these simulations carried out by the CSIS nevertheless allow a better understanding of the stakes and the dynamics of this theatre.

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