The current repositioning of the Russian forces having left the north of Ukraine, lets anticipate a next massive effort of the armies of Moscow in the Donbass, in order to secure the capture of the two Oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk, as well as the Ukrainian coasts bordering the Sea of Azov south of the Dnieper. Despite very significant losses, the Russians having lost more than 450 tanks and 800 armored vehicles since the beginning of the conflict in a documented manner, and probably more, the Russian forces still have significant reserves, especially since their artillery has been relatively preserved with "only" 4% losses vis-à-vis the theoretical inventory (compared to 17% of tanks and 9% of infantry combat vehicles), and significant air power that also has the full potential of the anti-aircraft defense deployed along Russian-Ukrainian border. To deal with it, the Ukrainian armies have deployed more than 40.000 soldiers in this region, among the most hardened and experienced at their disposal, and new reinforcements are being redeployed from the northern fronts.
If the Ukrainian armies have demonstrated their great operational efficiency, a massive offensive by Russian forces in the Donbass will be very complex to counter, being unable neither to rely on the important fixation points represented by the big cities outside of Dniepro and Zapoijjha on the Dnieper. In addition, if the Ukrainian infantry proved to be formidable, the artillery available to the armies of Kyiv is far less numerous than that aligned by Moscow, especially since Russian air power will be able to deploy its power more in such a theater. . Finally, unless we agree to retreat to extend the Russian lines of communication and logistics so as to apply the same strategy as around Kyiv, the opportunities to carry out a campaign of harassment of the Russian lines will be much more difficult to implement. in this region. In other words, and despite the undeniable qualities demonstrated by the Ukrainian armies, the looming battle of Donbass, which could well prove decisive for the future of Ukraine, will be one of the most difficult.
The best solution, to restore the relationship of forces and neutralize the advantage provided by Russian firepower and aviation, would naturally be to quickly deliver to the Ukrainian forces heavy means, tanks, artillery, infantry combat vehicles and long-range anti-aircraft defenses, materials that Kyiv has also been crying out for several weeks. However, both Europeans and Americans still seem reluctant to take such a step, fearing to provoke Moscow into an extension of the conflict, even if the Russian armies no longer have the capacity to lead a conventional offensive against NATO or even against EU members who are not members of the alliance. Efforts are apparently being made in this direction by the United States and certain countries of Eastern Europe, the only ones to have the same equipment as the Ukrainian armies that can be quickly taken over and put into work by these forces, but it seems unlikely that they can succeed before the outbreak of the coming offensive, knowing that for Moscow, it is politically essential to declare a victory before the celebrations of May 9.
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