For several months, military industrial cooperation programs between France and Germany have been in difficulty, not to say frankly threatened. Whether a repositioning of the German authorities in favor of the transatlantic link following the election of Joe Biden, excessive and unbalanced industrial ambitions between the players, or differences in the operational expectations of the armies of the two countries, tensions between Paris and Berlin are increasing, creating in the process growing hostility from public opinion vis-à-vis these programs, on both sides of the Rhine. As if that were not enough, a sword of Damocles has now materialized above the SCAF program, the main cooperation program between France and Germany, with the risk of collapsing all programs. And this sword is none other than the probable arrival of the Greens in government during the German legislative elections in September 2021.
Indeed, more and more experts agree, across the Rhine, to think that Angela Merkel's CDU-CSU will have no other choice at the end of these elections than to forge a government alliance with the Greens party, which today exceeds 20% in voting intentions, and which could in fact hold the keys to the future German government this autumn. But beyond the political dynamics underway in Germany, and the game of alliance inherent in the Germanic political model, the arrival of the Greens in the German government could well spell the end of the SCAF program. Indeed, the German Greens, if they have pan-European defense positions rather close to those expressed by Emmanuel Macron in recent years, also have two impassable red lines to stay in the good graces of their electorate.
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