Until now, the Israeli air forces enjoyed great freedom of maneuver over the Syrian skies. Indeed, if the Syrian anti-aircraft defense has been reinforced by S300 missile batteries, in addition to the S200, S125 and Pantsir already present, the mastery of electronic warfare issues by the Israeli Air Force made it possible to carry out missions without excessive risks. But the situation seems to have changed radically.
According to the defenseworld.net site citing the Russian site Avia.pro, the Russian air forces present in Syria at the Khmeimim air base, dispatched, on the night of September 10, a Su35s fighter to intercept Israeli aircraft heading towards Syria. Predictably, the latter turned back when the Flanker appeared; Israel was certainly not inclined to engage against Russian forces. This interception comes the day after the air attack, attributed to Israel, against a Syrian military post housing Hamas forces and which left 18 dead. It seems that since then, nighttime incursions by Israeli aircraft over Syria have stopped, at least for the moment. Note that by sending only a single aircraft, and not a pair as is customary, the Russian forces have indicated, in an induced manner, their desire to avoid confrontation.
By doing so, Moscow signaled to Jerusalem the limits it was prepared to tolerate. Indeed, it seems obvious that there is a non-aggression agreement between Israeli and Russian forces in Syria, so as to prevent any unfortunate confrontation. But with an increase in IAF attacks in Syria in recent weeks, responding to rocket attacks on Israeli settlements in the West Bank, Russia is likely hoping to halt the escalation of engagements between Israel and Hamas , supported by Iran. It is also likely that, at the same time, Russia warned the Syrian and Iranian authorities against any unnecessary provocation towards Israel. Obviously, this seems to be working since tensions seem to have frozen in the region for 2 days.
Even if the Israeli forces are among the most efficient and best trained, the prospect of having to confront Russia would entail a very significant increase in risks. Indeed, the Russian forces present in Syria have 2 S400 batteries and 2 S300PMU batteries, supported by the traditional Russian anti-aircraft defense system composed of the Buk, Tor and Pantsir S2 systems, representing a completely different threat than the defenses. Syrian anti-aircraft guns.
In addition, the Khmeimim air base generally houses 6 Su35s and as many Su30s, efficient aircraft in interception and air defense missions. Furthermore, several Russian submarines and ships, equipped with Kalibr missiles, cruise in the Mediterranean, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea, within range of Israeli territory. Finally, Russia has nearly a hundred Tu160 and Tu22M3 strategic bombers, capable of carrying out long-range raids from bases in Crimea, against targets located in Israel. Therefore, in the event of engagement, Israeli territory would find itself strongly threatened, well beyond the threats posed by Hamas rockets. This point, like the possible intervention of the United States in retaliation, has certainly not escaped the Israeli authorities as well as the Russian authorities.
For the moment, both Israeli and Russian authorities have chosen not to comment on the commitment. Paradoxically, this silence appears encouraging, since it shows that neither party wishes to exploit the incident to increase tensions.