The statements by Turkish President RT Erdogan made during a political meeting in the town of Sivas on Wednesday, September 4, had the effect of a bombshell. Indeed, the latter mentioned the possibility for Turkey to acquire nuclear weapons, “like all great nations” he said. He also took the example of Israel, which, according to him, would frighten all its neighbors, and would authorize itself to numerous actions, due to its possession of nuclear weapons.
This declaration, beyond the media effect it may generate, raises many questions about the objectives of the Turkish president regarding the future of his country. By publicly and openly addressing the subject, he adds a level of pressure on the United States and NATO, in the ongoing negotiations regarding the F35 in particular. Indeed, the implicit message conveyed by this declaration balances Turkey's membership in NATO and therefore in the Western camp, with the possibility of developing its own nuclear program if it were to leave. However, today, all these tensions and questions have crystallized around the exclusion of Turkey from the F35 program decided by Washington.
However, it is difficult to determine whether this is just an additional negotiating argument intended to get the United States to suspend the embargo on the F35s, or whether it is a deeper aspiration. , aiming to effectively make Turkey a militarily powerful nation free from the constraints of the Western camp, and capable of carrying out the expansionist policy repeatedly developed by President Erdogan during his political meetings. Let us recall in this respect that one of President Erdogan's major declared objectives, and which partly contributed to his electoral success, was to reestablish Turkey within these 1912 borders.
On the other hand, the technology enabling the design and implementation of nuclear weapons is today within the reach of a significant number of states which do not acquire it solely because of the international pressures which would result. In 2018, Prince Mohammed Ben Salman declared that if Iran acquired nuclear weapons, Saudi Arabia would do the same, and it seems that work in this direction has been started with the support of the Trump administration. As such, the Iranian authorities declared today no longer limit yourself to the commitments made during the Vienna agreement in 2015, due to the lack of concrete results from the Europeans for alternatives to American sanctions. Even the very peaceful Germany has seen this debate resurface recently, with several political leaders believing that the country had to ensure its own security in this way.
The fact is, many world leaders have in mind the future of Iraq and Libya (and their leaders), two countries having abandoned their nuclear programs, while the regime of North Korea, although very threatening , is still in place. Furthermore, nuclear power provides countries that are neither demographically, technologically, nor even economically representative with world power which therefore appears undue. It is indeed difficult to justify Russia's global weight, with only 145 million inhabitants and a GDP of $1.600 billion lower than that of Italy, other than by the 12.000 nuclear warheads it possesses, one for every 12.000 inhabitants. only, or even one head per 100 soldiers... In fact, it will be very difficult, in the decades to come which will see the geopolitical, economic and demographic landscape of the planet radically transform, to prevent the proliferation of nuclear weapons, on the simple non-proliferation paradigm.
By broaching the subject, President Erdogan would only be opening a little more a Pandora's box that is already unlocked and the object of much desire...