The People's Liberation Army (PLA) released a video showing Chinese soldiers participating in a riot drill in Hong Kong. The publication coincides with the statement by General Chen Daoxiang, commander of the PLA garrison in Hong Kong, who called the protests "absolutely intolerable."
As a reminder, Hong Kong is going through one of the most serious political crises in its history with eight consecutive weekends of massive protests. Initially these demonstrations were aimed at opposing the amendment of the extradition law by the Hong Kong government, now the demands have gone as far as calling for resignation of the head of the Hong Kong executive, Carrie Lam, and more broadly to preserve democracy.
Note that this announcement comes a week after the 74th Army Group of the PLA revealed on its Weibo account that several brigades under its command have started training in Zhanjiang, a city located 320 km southwest of the coast of Guangdong, the southern Chinese province bordering Hong Kong.
The central government is therefore sending a clear signal to the demonstrators: “All consequences are at your own risk” (后果自负) – to use the words of the soldiers training in the anti-riot exercise – but a question arises: can the People's Republic of China send the PLA to stop these protests?
Legal point: Article 14 of the Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region – the real local constitution – provides that the Hong Kong government may apply to the central government for assistance from the PLA Hong Kong Garrison for the maintenance of public order and disaster relief. Carrie Lam could therefore legally ask the PLA garrison to intervene on the grounds of maintaining public order.
However, Hu Xijin, editor-in-chief of the state-run Global Times, analyzes that Beijing would not be able to effectively run the city, even if the PLA would have no trouble isolating the most vehement demonstrators. Furthermore, he warns that the CCP does not have the same hold on the former British colony as it does on its other regions : “Should we establish a party branch in every district and community in Hong Kong [after a hypothetical PLA takeover]? » he wrote on his Weibo account. Such an intervention would fuel the demands of the opposition, which would have all the means to resist and sow trouble.
Furthermore, criticism from Western nations would be strong against Beijing: on the one hand, for having destroyed its “ One country, two systems ", on the other hand, for therepressive aspect of this intervention. Let us recall that since the repression of the Tian'anmen Square demonstrations, the European Community has put in place an arms embargo against China, embargo supported by the United States and Japan.
Ultimately, the great uncertainty and political cost of a PLA intervention in Hong Kong would be substantial. The potential consequences of an intervention would constitute a significant risk to the stability of the country for the central government of Xi Jinping.
Clement Guery
Specialist in foreign policy and security issues of the People's Republic of China.