The diplomatic and security crisis resulting from the muscular boarding of 3 Ukrainian Navy vessels by the Russian Navy from the Black Sea in the Kersh Strait, sheds new light on Moscow's objectives in the Sea of Azov.
Like China's claims in the China Sea, Russia is now demanding almost control of the Sea of Azov, with, in particular, the control of entries and exits by controlling the strait separating the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea. In fact, Ukraine would find itself able to transit vessels between its ports on the Black Sea, such as Odessa, and those in the Sea of Azov, such as Mariopol.
In addition to the obvious economic consequences for Ukrainian port activity, this eviction of Ukrainian rights also deprives the country of oil and gas resources discovered in the area, which was Ukrainian until recently.
Finally, complete control of the Sea of Azov allows Russian forces to quickly and easily deploy forces between Russian ports and the Ukrainian coast, which would provide an important advantage if Moscow decides to carry out an offensive to link the Donbass and the Crimea by land, by militarily capturing the coastal Oblasts of the area.
The Ukrainian authorities therefore have few options, none being particularly constructive, while Moscow, for its part, is increasing opportunities and strengthening its regional position.
Faced with this, Europe is remarkably helpless. European capitals have all called for calm and restraint, without being able to propose a way out of the crisis in the face of Russian power in the region. Berlin even specifically called on kyiv to exercise the greatest restraint, even though it is Ukraine that is being robbed of its territory and its international rights.
This situation is reminiscent of that in the China Sea, and that which is developing around Taiwan. From now on, all Western naval intrusions into the Chinese zone of control are subject to intervention by the Chinese navy and naval aviation, and to increasingly strong official claims from Beijing.
And, indeed, even if the American, Australian, Japanese and even European Navies continue to uphold international law by ignoring Chinese invectives by regularly penetrating these areas, these missions are now more and more sensitive, and therefore planned very meticulously. .
In both cases, we can only note the effectiveness of the fait-accomplished strategy led by Moscow and Beijing, and the blatant impotence of Western democracies in the face of it.
Due to their dependence on these authoritarian powers, on Russian gas for Europeans, on Chinese industrial and financial power for the United States, Western leaders have only limited options to try to cope, moreover constrained by a public opinion increasingly hostile to military opposition to these countries.
Comparison is not right, but the current situation is evolving in a manner similar to that which, at the end of the 30s, led to the slide towards the Second World War. Let us make no mistake, when democracies decline, it is world peace that declines with them.