Russian defense program announcements have been coming at a rapid pace for several years, even though the resources of the armed forces are under strain. In fact, an informed reading of what concerns industrial communication, political misinformation and the reality of programs is very difficult to achieve.
We can, thus, remember the 2000 T-14 tanks for 2020 announced in 2015, or the 17 nuclear destroyers of 17.000 tonnes Lider for 2025 announced in 2017. In France, many of our media and politicians took the announcement from the Kremlin concerning the construction of Russian PCBs using plans recovered during cooperation concerning the Mistrals.
What to think, in this case, of the announcement that Russia would develop a vertical take-off aircraft program“under the direct orders of President Putin”?
We are, obviously, reduced to simple conjectures as the tracks are blurred. On the one hand, the schedule of new constructions concerning military aviation has been known for more than a decade with the PAK programs, and this schedule makes no reference to a VSTOL aircraft.
On the other hand, two arguments weigh heavily on the veracity of the announcement:
- International demand for a VSTOL device is favorable, especially since the only device benefiting from this capability, the F35B, is both expensive and difficult to acquire (the UAE or the KAS have still not had approval for acquire F-35As). The increase in the number of LHDs in the navies of the world opens, in fact, a more than interesting market for Russia: India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Egypt, KSA... However, we have already established that the equipment model of the Russian forces rely largely on its export capabilities.
- On the other hand, although it continues to communicate on its 90.000 ton Storm aircraft carrier, while accepting the idea that a 45.000 ton version would be more accessible, the Russian General Staff and the naval industry know that the construction of such buildings is today out of reach. On the other hand, the creation of LHD is more realistic, and would also correspond more closely to the operational needs of the Russian forces. Such a device would therefore allow Russian naval forces to increase their strength more quickly, according to a model comparable to that of Great Britain, Italy or the US Marines Corps.
In fact, the hypothesis of the development of a new VSTOL fighter, probably based on the technological advances of the Yak141 and the technologies made more reliable by the Su-57, is far from incoherent. In addition, the Yakovlev design offices have had very little activity since the design of the Yak-130 training aircraft, and such a project would allow the OAK consortium, which owns Sukhoi, Mig, Tupolev and Ilyushin, to further strengthen its global market shares.