The Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade has just published its report on shipbuilding until 2035 in Russia. Today, 90% of the production of some 60 Russian shipyards is linked to Defense, and the growth of this sector, strategic for Moscow, is therefore dependent on the investment capacities of the Russian Ministry of Defense, itself dependent on tax revenues of the country, therefore growth and especially the price of hydrocarbons on the world market. This is why the report studies 3 scenarios, conditioned by a single input variable, the average price of a barrel of oil:
- The first scenario, called “pessimistic”, is based on a barrel of $40 and sluggish growth of 1,2%. In this case, most of the Russian Navy's investments will focus on strengthening the "mosquito fleet", currently underway, made up of patrol boats, missile launchers and corvettes for coastal defense, as well as in strengthening the submarine fleet, notably with the entry into service of the future Husky nuclear submarine. The strengthening of the surface fleet will not occur before 2035.
- The second scenario, called the “innovative” scenario, envisages oil at $60 per barrel, generating average growth of 2%. In this case, the construction of the coastal fleet will be completed in 2022, and will be followed by that of the high seas fleet, with an average rate of one ship to one and a half ships per year.
- The last scenario, known as the “optimistic” scenario, evokes a barrel rate of more than 70% and growth of more than 3% over the period, making it possible to begin the construction of the high seas fleet from 2020.
Scenarios 2 and 3 are, in fact, very close, and probable, to the extent that the price of a barrel, after a significant fall in 2014 bringing the price of a barrel to less than $35, has entered a strong upward trend. , today exceeding $70 for a barrel of Brent. With the undermining of the Iranian agreement, and the Saudi inflections to support prices and therefore restore its tax revenues, this trend does not seem to show any sign of weakening in the medium or long term.
Among the flagship programs for the reconstruction of the Russian High Seas Fleet, today equipped with cruisers and destroyers inherited from the Soviet era and modernized with more or less success, four are particularly notable:
- the Super Gorshov program, a 7000-ton destroyer derived from the current Admiral Gorshov frigates, of which 8 units are planned by the 2018-2025 GPV.
- The Lider program, a nuclear-powered heavy destroyer, comparable to the Chinese Type 055, intended to become the backbone of the Russian high seas fleet
- The 14.000 t LHD program derived from the Priboy study, construction of which should begin in 2021
- Finally, the aircraft carrier program, which for the moment has no materiality, but which will most likely be launched if oil prices hold up.
The report also indicates that several shipyards have undergone significant improvements in recent years, in order to increase the tonnage of vessels that can be produced. He also specifies that many problems remain unresolved, particularly in terms of production quality. The problems encountered during sea trials of the Gorshov frigates, Ivan Green assault ships, and the Yassen and Lada submarines confirm the difficulties that the Russian naval industry continues to encounter. According to the report, the lack of security of budgets and planning are one of the main causes of these dysfunctions.
In any case, we understand that the construction and strengthening of a high seas fleet is far from being a priority for the Russian armies, which naturally favor land and air forces, as well as submarines, areas in which they excel. This need is all the less urgent as China has invested massively in this area, and is building a fleet likely to pose significant problems for American naval power.
The choices governing the design of the Lider class confirm these choices, since by favoring a heavy and heavily armed propulsion ship, the Russian Navy will be able to implement a corsair strategy rather than a fleet strategy, like of that used by the German Navy during the Second World War, without success that said.