Category: Deterrence Policy

After Russia, North Korea is surfing on the fantasy of the nuclear torpedo capable of creating a Tsunami

On March 1, 2018, during a televised address as part of the presidential election campaign, President Vladimir Putin publicly announced the upcoming arrival, within the Russian armed forces, of 6 new weapons that will bring the world, and Westerners in particular, to “listen to Russia again,” in his words. Beyond the hypersonic weapons Kinzhal and Avangard as well as the new ICBM Sarmat, all now well known, the Russian president presented a "nuclear-powered" cruise missile, the 9M730 Burevestnik, an anti-aircraft and laser space defense system designated Peresvet , as well as a weapon that, since its presentation, arouses many…

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What are the 3 major dangers linked to European American-centrism in terms of Defense?

For many years, long before President Macron's arrival at the Elysée Palace, the French position on defense had always been more independent than that of its neighbors vis-à-vis American protection. In 2017, when tensions between Berlin and Washington were at their peak, Emmanuel Macron and Engels Merkel launched several industrial and political initiatives to give substance to a very ambitious and quite old project, Defense Europe. However, as relations between Germany and the United States normalized from the following year, the Franco-German cooperation programs gradually withered, largely from…

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Faced with NATO, Vladimir Putin announces the strengthening of the Russian nuclear triad

Two days ago, after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the suspension of the New Start Treaty, we wrote that this decision paved the way for a future build-up of Russia's operational nuclear arsenal, the latter being today today the only asset remaining in the hands of the head of the Kremlin, to justify Russia's status as a superpower on the international scene, while its conventional forces have been very severely reduced by a year of war in Ukraine. It only took two days, and despite the skeptical comments of some journalists on this subject, for the…

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Why did V. Putin announce the suspension of the New Start treaty on the limitation of nuclear weapons?

After the Cuban missile crisis, both Americans and Soviets perceived the existential danger represented by the disproportionate nuclear arsenal held by the two superpowers, but also the colossal costs that this arms race engendered for the two countries. However, it took almost 7 years for the two countries to begin discussions on this subject. These will be conducted in Helsinki in November 1969, to give birth on May 26, 1972 to the first strategic arms regulation treaty, called Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, or SALT. This planned to freeze the number of ICBM ballistic missiles held by the two camps at their level…

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Can France increase its defense investments beyond the limits of the LPM 2024-2030?

A few days before its official presentation, the content of the future French Military Programming Law, which will frame the investments of the State in these armies for the next 7 years, is beginning to be increasingly clear. However, beyond the some €400 billion in investments planned over the next 7 years, and the €13 billion in exceptional loans also planned over this period, and although this trajectory represents an increase of €100 billion compared to screw of the previous LPM, many voices have been raised for a few days to regret the arbitrations, and sometimes to criticize the amount judged, not without…

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It's a good time to exit the deterrent investments from the budget deficit

France invests, each year, between 5 and 7 billion euros to finance the most important component of its defence, namely its nuclear deterrence. Relying on 4 Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines, each armed with 16 M45 and M51 intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as two squadrons of Rafale fighters armed with ASMPA supersonic nuclear missiles, French deterrence is designed to keep in check any adversary who comes to threaten the country or its strategic interests, even if it is itself equipped with a deterrent force. In the years to come, with the development of new 3rd generation nuclear ballistic missile submarines…

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Can Europe put an end to the war in Ukraine?

Last week, an analysis published by the think tank Rand Corporation studied the risks linked to the extension in the duration of the Ukrainian conflict, as well as the solutions that could be put forward by Washington to contain them. Like most of the studies published by the Rand, this one was at the same time very relevant, documented and objective, in the diagnosis as in the recommended solutions. However, this one started from a basic postulate which requires a certain prudence as for the applicability of the results presented: indeed, this study studied the conflict in Ukraine only from the point of view of the action of Washington and its…

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After Europe and Japan, the United States will strengthen its forces in South Korea

Since the beginning of the Russian assault on Ukraine, the United States has deployed more than 20.000 additional soldiers in Europe, to reach a total of 100.000 men and women of the 4 US armies present on European soil. At the same time, the American military presence in Japan has been significantly hardened, with the deployment of new anti-aircraft and detection systems, as well as new combat devices, while tensions with Beijing, particularly around the Taiwan question , keep growing. It will be the same in South Korea. Indeed, on a visit to Seoul to meet his counterpart Lee Jong-Sup,…

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North Korea will invest almost 16% of its GDP in its defense in 2023

For many Western countries, in Europe as in Asia, achieving a defense effort equal to 2% of its Gross Domestic Product constitutes a sufficient objective to guarantee its security, and even a very ambitious objective for some like Belgium which are struggling to achieve a defense effort of 1,5% of GDP. The perception is very different in other countries, depending on the perceived threat or the ambitions of its leaders. Thus, the United States devotes 3,7% of its annual production of wealth to its armies, and Russia will devote, in 2023, more than 5% of its GDP to this effort. Korea…

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Is French on-board hunting threatened by the next military programming law?

In order to meet the security challenges imposed by geopolitical and technological developments, in particular the emergence of new significant military threats, including in Europe, President Emmanuel Macron announced, shortly after his re-election, that a new Planning Law would be designed to be presented in the first quarter of 2023, and voted on immediately by Parliament, probably before the summer break. Beyond a strategic review of the most obscure, mixing in its conclusions strategic objectives, means and cooperation, it is since then very difficult to obtain from the Ministry of the Armed Forces as well as from the General Staff, information on the content of…

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