Category: Deterrence Forces

Will the United States oppose the sale of Israeli Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missiles to Germany?

Barely a few days ago, following the Prague speech by Chancellor Olaf Scholz in Prague, which is establishing itself as the founder of German strategy in terms of European defense from now on, the German authorities confirmed their intention to order the anti- Israeli Arrow 3 ballistic missiles to constitute its anti-missile shield, and consequently, that of the European countries which will join the initiative proposed by Berlin. If this announcement made Paris and Rome cringe, which together are developing the all-European Aster 1NT anti-ballistic missile, it did not provoke any official reaction from Washington. It is precisely this lack of…

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Partial mobilization and nuclear weapons, should we be afraid of Vladimir Putin's declarations?

Since Vladimir Putin's speech on Russian public channels this morning, great excitement has taken hold of the European media, and consequently of public opinion as a whole. Faced with what is emerging more and more like an operational impasse every day, the Russian President announced 3 key measures to try to turn the situation to his advantage in Ukraine and in Europe. This public statement by the Russian President, supported a few minutes later by the Minister of Defense, Sergey Choigou, brought a new stage to this war which began on February 24, raising the specter of a…

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Arrow 3, KF-51 Panther, F-35..: Germany turns its back on France without saying so

For several months, the Franco-German defense industrial cooperation programs have suffered from a deep industrial divergence, as is the case of the opposition between Dassault Aviation and Airbus DS in the field of the new combat aircraft program SCAF generation, or between Nexter and Rheinmetall in that of the combat tank program of the future MGCS. In addition, Berlin has distanced itself or even withdrawn from certain cooperation, such as the MAWS maritime patrol aircraft program scuttled by the acquisition of American P-8A Poseidons, the program for the evolution of the combat helicopter Tiger 3 which will only be produced by Paris and Madrid (but to which the…

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LPM 2023: a trajectory already mapped out for the Air and Space Force?

During the 2000s and until 2015, the French Air Force, which has since become the Air and Space Force, was largely privileged, and sometimes envied, vis-à-vis the other armies. In fact, it captured, on its own, almost half of the credits for equipment devoted to Programs with major effects, forcing both the Army and the Navy to review some of their programs by reducing their volumes and spreading out the calendars. This situation was not so much due to government preference or a form of lobbying, as to strong industrial constraints. Indeed, it was then necessary in order to maintain in activity…

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LPM 2023: Will France have to abandon its “Global Army”?

“An army of samples”. This phrase has been used on many occasions to define the French Armies and their capabilities. However, it is not in the least relevant, because it suggests that all of its components have been undersized below a threshold guaranteeing their effectiveness. While it is true that 200 Leclerc tanks and 77 CAESAR guns are insufficient to undertake a major conflict under acceptable conditions, other capacities, in the air, naval or projection forces domain, are for their part dimensioned in order to respond needs to. As for French deterrence, if it may seem insufficiently endowed in the face of...

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Germany wants an integrated European anti-aircraft defence, but without France...

How long ago the time when Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel repeated over and over again the benefits of Franco-German cooperation in order to build "the Europe of Defense", and that all subjects were considered in the specter of this cooperation, even when it was neither suitable nor efficient. Today, most Franco-German defense equipment co-development programs, such as SCAF, MGCS, MAWS or CIFS, are at a standstill or severely hampered, when they are not purely and simply abandoned. as Tiger III on the German side. What may appear as the emergence of technical differences hampering the progress of these industrial programs, could in reality be...

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LPM 2023: Should France acquire tactical ballistic missiles again?

During the Cold War, France, like the United States and the Soviet Union, had an expanded nuclear arsenal, relying both on S2 ballistic missiles in silos on the plateau of the Albion in the foothills of the Alps, nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines armed with MSBS ballistic missiles, several models of bombers ranging from the Mirage IV for strategic strikes to the Jaguar and Super Etendard for tactical strikes, and later replaced by the Mirage 2000 and the ASMP supersonic cruise missile, as well as tactical ballistic missiles, first of all the Pluto system with a range of 120 km armed with a…

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The hypothesis of nuclear blackmail materializes in Beijing on the Taiwanese file

From the start of military operations in Ukraine at the end of February 2022, Moscow undertook to increase tensions with the West by multiplying demonstrations of force, exercises and declarations concerning the possible use of its nuclear capacities. For the Kremlin, it was a question of preventing the Europeans and the Americans from responding favorably to Ukrainian demands regarding the implementation of a no-fly zone but also against the delivery of high-performance Western weapon systems to the armies. Ukrainians. If indeed the “No Fly Zone” over Ukraine has never been set up, rightly since the risk of a globalization of the conflict would have been…

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Taiwan: When and how will China go on the offensive?

For several years, the tensions between Washington and Beijing around the Taiwanese question have continued to grow, to now become a subject constantly flirting with the casus belli, between the incursions of the navy and the American and allied air forces at sea. of South China and in the Taiwan Strait, the interceptions and the naval and air incursions of the People's Liberation Army around the island, and the successive and reciprocal responses as soon as Washington sends a new load of armaments, parliamentarians or members of the government in Taipei. The belligerent dynamic is such that from now on, the armed forces…

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What will be the priorities of the next French Military Programming Law?

Until the beginning of the Russian intervention in Ukraine, the French executive had one watchword and only one concerning the conduct of the defense effort: All the Military Programming Law 2019-2025, but that the LPM 2019 -2025. Designed on the basis of the 2017 Strategic Review, itself strongly constrained by the 2013 White Paper, the 2019-2025 LPM aimed to repair the significant damage resulting from two decades of under-investment in the French armies, even though the operational pressure remained very high. It is clear that in 5 years, the situation of the armies has greatly improved, with an annual budget increased by €8,5 billion, i.e.…

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