The United States fears the trivialization of Russian and Chinese “blackmail to deterrence”

Barely a few days after the start of military operations in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin ordered, in a very publicized manner, his Chief of Staff and his Minister of Defense to put the Russian strategic forces on high alert, in response the first round of sanctions from the United States and Europe against Russia in response to this aggression. Since then, Moscow has repeatedly repeated its strategic threats in an attempt to prevent the West from interfering in the ongoing conflict, and to provide growing support to the Ukrainians. If this did not prevent the United States, Great Britain and many European countries from delivering armaments...

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Will Russia lose its army in Ukraine?

Since the 2008 military intervention in Georgia, Russian conventional military power had been a powerful tool at the service of the Kremlin, both to intimidate its neighbors and to bring Russia back to the forefront of the international geopolitical scene. The successes recorded in Crimea and then in Syria created an aura of power that allowed Moscow to impose itself on several occasions in Europe but also in Africa. This same conventional power, backed by the immense deterrent force of the Russian nuclear arsenal, largely explains the sometimes timorous attitude of Westerners in support of Ukraine during the first weeks of the conflict, when very few believed that…

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Should European military support for Ukraine be increased?

Very few, even among the best informed, had imagined that after 5 weeks of combat, the Russian Special Military Operation would be so contained by the Ukrainian defenders, and that the Russian armies would have suffered material and human losses as well. important. However, today, despite its extraordinary firepower and air force, it is the Russian army that goes into a defensive position on many fronts, and even retreats in the face of certain Ukrainian counter-attacks, especially around Kyiv. However, this perception given both by the Western media and by the very efficient Ukrainian war communication, does not allow…

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The lessons in Ukraine contradict the military paradigms inherited from the Gulf War

Very few, on the evening of February 24, 2022, the date of the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, had imagined that after 3 weeks of war, the Russian forces would have made so little progress in the country, at the cost of such heavy losses. . Thus, an article surreptitiously published on the so-called pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsokolskaja pravda yesterday, reported nearly 10.000 killed and more than 16.000 wounded within the Russian armies according to his staff, this not taking into account the losses of his Wagner and Chechen auxiliaries. Although such allegations may be questionable, it must be recognized that this level of…

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Is Russia tipping towards a war of attrition in Ukraine?

Since the beginning of its invasion of Ukraine, the Russian armies have encountered many difficulties, partly linked to an obvious lack of performance and effectiveness of its own forces, but also to the exceptional combativeness and tactical Intelligence Ukrainians themselves. In fact, despite a very marked advantage in terms of firepower, technology and air capabilities, the first 3 weeks of this war in Ukraine were marked by a difficult advance of the Russian armies in the country, and losses of an intensity forgotten since the Second World War or the Korean War. So, in 24 days...

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With 3 SSBNs at sea, the French deterrence posture at its highest since 1983

There are unmistakable signs of the level of tension that exists between the West and Russia, against the backdrop of Russian aggression in Ukraine. Thus, barely a few days after the launch of what is presented by Moscow as a "Special Military Operation", and which is obviously turning into a nightmare for the Russian armies, the Kremlin had announced the heightened alert of its forces. of deterrence. If at the time, the Western nuclear powers had not publicly raised the threat so as not to aggravate the situation, they nevertheless drew their own conclusions. So we learn...

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Can Russia still impose itself militarily in Ukraine?

“The Special Military Operation in Ukraine is proceeding according to plan”. This is how General Igor Konashenkov, spokesman for the Russian Defense Ministry, presented his daily briefing yesterday, Thursday March 10, after 15 days of war. However, many information radically contradict this statement, and it seems, on the contrary, that this military operation which was to be only a formality for the super-powerful Russian army, is turning into a veritable quagmire for Vladimir Putin. Faced with appalling losses in man and material, a difficult progression, distended lines, a Ukrainian resistance much more efficient and determined than envisaged as well as a response and mobilization...

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How will the war in Ukraine transform strategic planning in Europe?

Just 3 weeks ago, very few in the West believed that Russia was indeed going to wage a global war of aggression on Ukraine. For many, the deployment of Russian force around Ukraine was intended to make President Zelensky bend over his NATO membership and the status of the breakaway republics of Donbass. For the best informed, like the General Staff of the French Armies, and as we discussed in an article of February 23, the military and political risks associated with such an offensive did not outweigh the potential benefits, so that such a decision appeared irrational and therefore little…

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Cacophony within NATO over Polish MiG-29s

Yesterday evening we published an article (to avoid any confusion, it has been deleted and is accessible for information at the end of this article) concerning the announced decision of Warsaw to transfer its Mig-29 fighter planes to the American base of Rammstein in Germany, suggesting that the United States would ensure the delivery of these fighters to the Ukrainian air force in order to support the defense effort against Russian aggression. In the same press release, the Polish authorities announced that they would replace the aircraft offered indirectly to Ukraine, by acquiring second-hand combat aircraft with the same capabilities as those of its Mig-29s, suggesting that …

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Have we overestimated the Russian Armies?

Since the beginning of the Russian offensive against Ukraine, the armies of the Kremlin have been closely observed by military specialists. This is, in fact, the first massive deployment of these armies since the invasion of Georgia in 2008, an operation which revealed many serious shortcomings within them. However, as in 2008, it appears that the Russian Armies are the subject of significant difficulties, even though the reforms of 2008 and 2012 were designed specifically to correct them and bring the Russian Armies to a much higher operational standard than that observed in the field. Under these conditions, and in view of the observations made on...

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