Will Serbia become the fighter’s 8th export customer? Rafale, on the occasion of President Macron's official visit to Belgrade, on August 29 and 30? This is, in any case, what we can expect, after President Aleksandar Vucic announced last April that he expected the signing of the order for 12 French aircraft, within 2 months to come, and that the negotiations surrounding this potential contract were concluded at the beginning of the summer.
In fact, everything suggests that Emmanuel Macron and his Serbian counterpart will formalize this contract during the French president's visit to Belgrade this week. However, many questions and reservations had emerged around this contract, when it was announced last April, whether it concerns the use that could be made of these devices against other Balkan countries, notably Kosovo. , or concerning possible technological leaks to Russia or China.
If, for the moment, the Élysée is very discreet regarding this question, neither confirming nor denying the possibility of an agreement on this subject, it is certainly useful to analyze these reservations, to determine whether , yes or no, France can sell these very advanced combat aircraft to Serbia, and if this meets the interests of the state?
In this section:
Everything is ready for Emmanuel Macron to sign the sale of 12 Rafale in Serbia, on the occasion of his official visit to Belgrade
The Serbian file, concerning the sale of Rafale, is not recent. Indeed, discussions on this subject began in 2021, when Belgrade announced its desire to replace its Mig-29 and MIG-21 remaining in service with a modern aircraft.
Quickly, the Rafale French appeared to be the preferred choice by Belgrade, no longer wishing to turn to Moscow, its traditional partner in this area, both to avoid compromising its candidacy for membership in the EU, and to avoid the risks of American sanctions linked to the CATSAA legislation.
However, the discussions were long and complex. Belgrade wished, concomitantly with Rafale, acquire certain advanced munitions, such as the Hammer bomb and the SCALP missile, both of which are proving very effective in Ukraine, and especially the European Meteor long-range air-to-air missile, knowing that for this, it was necessary to obtain the approval of the other countries participating in this program.
These pitfalls have, however, been overcome, since during President Vucic's visit to Paris last April, he was very confident on this subject, arguing thathe expected the contract to be signed “within two months”, he predicted.
The fact is, the negotiations between France and Serbia, surrounding this program, were concluded at the beginning of July. However, probably linked to political news and the start of the Paris Olympic Games, their realization has not been announced until now. President Macron and his Serbian counterpart will therefore have all the cards in hand to, if they wish, make this order a reality, on the occasion of the French president's visit to Belgrade on August 29 and 30.
Despite reluctance, France has every interest in selling its devices to Serbia
Although it is likely that the signing will indeed take place on this occasion, nothing has been officially announced on this subject, either by the Élysée or by the Serbian authorities. Considering the French domestic political agenda, it is, most certainly, for Emmanuel Macron, to mark the perimeter of his presidential function, while everything indicates that a period of cohabitation should begin in the days to come in France, which will be more or less tense depending on the name of the future prime minister designate.
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Industrial espionage, even when effective in terms of information gathering, does not automatically guarantee success in replicating or improving the stolen technology. For active espionage by acquisition to be truly effective, the spying country must not only possess the information, but also have sufficient industrial and technological level to understand, conceptualize, and reproduce the technology competitively. We can cite some telling examples; Fighter jet engines, semiconductors, submarine technology.
Our defense is not not to not sell but to innovate to stay ahead of our competitors.
Very well summarized!
I have acquaintances working for BITD manufacturers who tell me that the “sensitive” defense equipment sold for export is not exactly the same as that supplied to the French armies, precisely for these reasons of industrial espionage. and/or in the event that a plane (for example) is actually shot down and/or falls into the wrong hands…
Among other things. We also willingly take on board certain foreign equipment, like that, if they are copied…. well, it is not because we have a product that we can reproduce it. Material technology, in particular, is very difficult to reproduce. In fact, it is in our best interest to find ourselves facing our own equipment, if necessary, even if they are Rafales….
in fact, everyone knows how to make a 155 cannon but only France knows how to make the best 🙂