With more than 300 combat aircraft ordered for export to date, the Rafale of Dassault Aviation has become, since 2015, a great international success for the aircraft manufacturer and the entire French defense aeronautical industry.
The commercial spearhead of Dassault has already exceeded the total export sales of the Mirage 2000 by 281 aircraft, and now aims to do better than the Mirage F1, sold in 450 units on the international scene.
And the Rafale might just get there. Indeed, the French aircraft faces a very buoyant market in the next ten years, with an addressable market reaching 324 potential export aircraft.
While Eric Trappier, the CEO of Dassault Aviation, has just announced that the group is resuming the signing of new contracts, after having reorganized its production and its supply chain, to produce 2 aircraft per month today, and 3 per month, in 2025, it is interesting to look more precisely at these upcoming markets and competitions, to which the Rafale participates, with real chances of success.
In this section:
24 aircraft in Europe: Greece and Serbia
Traditionally, the European market has always been the most difficult market for Dassault Aviation aircraft to address. Thus, the Mirage III had only been acquired by Spain and Switzerland, the Mirage V by Belgium alone, the Mirage F1 by Spain, again, and Greece, and the Mirage 2000, only by Athens .
Until recently, the Rafale seemed destined to follow this same trajectory, in particular in the face of the tidal wave F-35, chosen, to date, by 15 of the 21 air forces with fighter aviation on the old continent, Greece has just announced the order for 20 aircraft.
After the Mirage F1 and the Mirage 2000, Athens and the Hellenic Air Force, in fact, seemed destined to be the only export user of the Rafale in Europe, for 24 devices ordered to date. However, it managed to win in Croatia, against the Gripen and F-16V, for 12 aircraft, the first of which was delivered this year.
And the European career of the French hunter should not end there. First, with Serbia, Belgrade having announced the upcoming acquisition of 12 aircraft announced in April 2024 by President Vucic, on the occasion of the official visit of the French president to the country. (see update of August 31)
Then, again, in Greece, Athens having long ago announced his intention to acquire a second squadron of Rafale, or 12 additional hunters. The confirmation made by Olaf Scholz, a few days ago, concerning the probable export of 40 Eurofighters Typhoon towards Turkey, will most certainly accelerate the execution of this third Hellenic order.
140 Rafale in Asia: Indian Air Force and Navy
The largest addressable market in the next ten years, by Rafale, is undoubtedly located in Asia, while the continent has already seen India order 36 Rafale 2016 in, and Indonesia, 42 aircraft, in 2022.
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Happy holidays and thank you for all the information and analysis you make available to us.
Some sites are beginning to mention, in view of Mr. Trappeur's latest statements to Europe 1, the sale of Rafales in Morocco.
You do not mention this "prospect" in your article.
So it's just a rumor?
However, the diplomatic climate seems to be improving with this country.
But yes, he talks about it, just above the image of Moroccan F1)) I didn't put them there for nothing 😉
That said, I haven't heard anything concrete on this yet. Paris' new position on the South Sahara certainly helps, given that Morocco is going to see its F1s replaced in the coming years anyway. The question is whether the UAE's 2000-9s will have this function, or whether Rabat is really considering acquiring twenty or so Rafale for it.
I would leave it, for the moment, in the second category, keeping in the first category more advanced contracts like Colombia (which has a knife at its throat), Saudi Arabia, Peru (for whom the replacement of the 1P is becoming urgent); or the Indian Navy, the file having reached a new stage last week, and it should, logically, materialize before the end of the year. But that can change very quickly.
Thank you for your prompt response.
But then who and what was Eric Trappier talking about regarding this signing before the end of the year?
Personalized Rafale Navy for India?
A historically significant feat – a bolt from the blue in an Anglo-Saxon preserve – would be to sell around fifty Rafale to Saudi Arabia…
Today, I see two contracts that could come to fruition in 2024: the Rafale M and B for the Indian Navy, and the replacement of the Colombian Kfir C10s. In 2025, I would put the replacement of the Peruvian 2000Ps, and Saudi Arabia, if it is to materialize. The options (UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Greece) can be exercised at any time. But I do not really see the point in rushing for them, unless you want to take delivery slots for the end of the decade. They will certainly have better conditions, perhaps F5s, aiming for early 2030, once Dassault's order book has deflated.
Indeed, Saudi Arabia would be a huge achievement for Dassault. But it will be really difficult, because the United States is starting to worry about Riyadh turning away from them, and is giving up on defense technologies that can be exported to the country. I would not be surprised, within 2/3 years, that the F-35 is authorized for KAS, Qatar and the UAE, precisely to get back into the game in the Middle East, and to push away the Chinese or Russian option.