Will the Indian Navy turn to the Scorpene Evolved for its 3 new submarines?

While Jakarta has just announced the order for two Scorpene Evolved submarines, negotiations between Paris and New Delhi concerning arms programs have gained momentum since the Indian legislative elections, and the new victory of Narendra Modi.

After the information suggesting that the order of 22 Rafale M, and 4 Rafale Two-seaters, for the Indian Navy, could be signed by the end of 2024, it is now the turn of the three Scorpene submarines of the Kalvari class to make headlines again.

Indeed, the Indian press indicates that negotiations regarding these three ships, designed by Naval Group, and built by the Mazagon Docks shipyards, have also progressed, and are close to a conclusion.

However, the most interesting information, relayed by the Indian press, is not the amount of the contract, nor the manufacturing times guaranteed by Mazagon Dock, but the indiscretion regarding a new propulsion system which will equip the new submersibles, significantly extending the autonomy and performance of ships.

The three new Indian Scorpene built by Mazagon Docks, in 6 years for 35.000 crores, or €3,9 billion

Like the Rafale M intended to operate aboard Indian aircraft carriers, the announcement concerning the order of 3 additional Scorpene-type submarines for the Indian Navy was made by Narendra Modi during his official visit to France in July 2023, on the occasion of the French National Day celebrations.

And as for combat planes, discussions on the subject of these ships seem to have been slowed down, and even suspended for a moment, during the electoral campaign for the Indian legislative elections, which were held in mid-May and early May. June 2024.

The subject has resurfaced in the Indian presse few days ago, when the Mazagon shipyards sent their proposal to the Indian authorities, for the local construction of these three ships.

Remember that, previously, it is this same shipyard which, associated with Naval Group, built the six submarines forming the Kalvari class of the Indian Navy. In 2005, the Indian authorities awarded the contract to these two partners, to locally build 6 Scorpene-type submarines of 67,5 meters with a submerged displacement of 1775 tonnes.

The first ship, the INS Kalvari, was launched in October 2015, and entered service in December 2017. The other 5 ships followed, at an average of one new ship every 18 months. The latest unit, INS Vagsheer, was launched in April 2022, and is expected to join the service in the coming weeks.

A new contract for new submarines, larger, modernized and with a new propulsion system

Initially, discussions between Naval Group, MDL, the Indian Navy and the country's authorities were to focus on the construction of three ships very close to the initial Kalvari. However, it was mentioned that the ships could receive the new AIP anaerobic propulsion system developed by the DRDO, the Indian arms agency, from construction, and not during their first modernization, as for the first six ships.

However, according to revelations made by the Indian press in recent days, the new submarines, which would constitute an evolution of the Kalvari class, will be more imposing than the Indian models. Above all, these should receive a new propulsion system, giving them extended autonomy and performance.

However, if AIP technologies make it possible to increase the diving endurance of conventional submarines, they do not, strictly speaking, extend the autonomy, and even less, the performance of the ships, in particular against Scorpene classics, already deemed to have advanced capabilities in these two areas.

Obviously, without this being expressed by the Indian media, this description would correspond perfectly to Lithium-Ion propulsion which, precisely, offers increased autonomy to ships, as well as performance, particularly in terms of diving speed, very widely. superior to conventional batteries, and even more so compared to AIP systems.

In fact, the description given here leads us to believe that the Indian Navy could have turned, over the course of the negotiations, towards the Scorpene Evolved model, or, at least, towards the use of some of its key technologies, such as lithium-ion propulsion.

As a reminder, the Scorpene Evolved were publicly presented, by Naval Group, in October 2023, as part of the competition organized by the Indonesian Navy, for the local construction of two new submarines. In March 2024, Jakarta announced the victory of Naval Group and PT PAL in this competition, and the order of two Scorpene Evolved.

A major technology transfer to allow Mazagon to manufacture other ships with great autonomy.

Obviously, lithium-ion technology, and more generally, the Scorpene Evolved, represent numerous developments compared to the Kalvari class Scorpene, more than ten years separating the design of the two variants.

In fact, the construction of these new ships, by MDL, would require, once again, significant technology transfers, especially since India now expects at least 60% of the work, in value, to be carried out on Indian soil.

However, technology transfers seem to be at the heart of the ongoing discussions between New Delhi and Naval Group around these three new ships, according to information collected by the Indian press. Which therefore tends to support the hypothesis of a shift in the Indian program towards the Scorpene Evolved, or, rather, towards a hybrid between the traditional Kalvari, and the generic Scorpene Evolved from Naval Group.

It must be said that, here again, according to the Indian press, the game is worth it, for Mazagon as for Naval Group. Indeed, the stated objective for these technology transfers would be to achieve, in the future, the autonomous construction of future ships of the same class in India, or even to ensure their development.

Will the Scorpene Evolved, or Kalvari Evolved, sound the death knell for the P75i program?

This opening is fully in line with the Make in India doctrine, supported by Narendra Modi and his nationalist majority. In particular, it would allow MDL to upgrade the first six Kalvaris in the future to equip them with lithium-ion batteries, which would significantly extend their performance, without going through the AIP stage.

Above all, it opens an avenue for negotiation in Mazagon, with the support of Naval Group, to replace the P75i program, which plans to order six new AIP submarines for the Indian Navy, to be directly equipped with lithium-ion submarines. ion, more efficient, while benefiting from a certain standardization within the fleet, which facilitates maintenance, as well as crew training.

This hypothesis is all the more credible as the three submarines proposed by MDL and Naval Group are part of a global budget of 35000 crores, or €3,9 billion, this including the technology transfers so important for Mazagon, the Indian Navy, and, above all, for Narendra Modi.

This price turns out to be particularly competitive, to the point that it would certainly be very difficult for other competitors such as TKMS, Navantia, Kockums, Hanwha Ocean and Rubin to match up with comparable technology and performance.

In addition, as for the first contract Rafale Indian, this first contract Kalvari Evolved, would bear many of the costs of adaptation and technology transfer necessary for this local manufacturing, suggesting that the six ships to follow could be even more economical to manufacture, and therefore even more attractive.

Conclusion

As mentioned in a previous article, when it comes to information relayed by the Indian press, we must always be cautious and circumspect. However, it is clear that the information relayed here by several sources does indeed seem to overlap, and above all complement each other to give a coherent final picture.

The hypothesis of seeing the Indian Navy favor the Scorpene Evolved, or, as written above, a Kalvari Evolved, rather than a classic Kalvari or AIP, for its three future submarines, obviously makes a lot of sense and 'interests. In particular, it does not seem to generate significant additional costs, judging by the investments mentioned in India, as well as by the price proposed by Naval group in the Netherlands.

The fact remains that negotiations with New Delhi are always long and difficult. However, the French negotiators, from Naval group and Dassault aviation, now master all aspects, and therefore know how to navigate the political, military and industrial twists and turns of the country. However, as always, we will have to wait for more information, and official confirmations, before congratulating ourselves on the French success.