The BND, the German intelligence services, believes that Russia can continue the war for a long time

The BND, through its president Bruni Kahl, believes that Russia is capable of continuing the war for many months, even many years.

The outbreak of the Russian offensive took many intelligence services in Europe by surprise, including in France. The latter, having weakened its intelligence system in Russia to concentrate on the terrorist threat, could therefore only rely on technological intelligence to form an opinion.

It is true that, for many specialists on the subject before February 24, while a Russian offensive against Ukraine was probably doomed to success, it would generate such heavy losses and a determined international reaction that very few would venture to think that Vladimir Putin could make such an error of judgement.

This was not the case with the Bundesnachrichtendienst, or BND, the German federal intelligence service. Indeed, during an event organized by the Federal Academy of Security Policy on May 22, its president, Bruno Kahl, gave details on the role of his service around this conflict. Thus, according to Mr. Kahl, the German service had announced the imminence of a Russian offensive two weeks before the start of Russian operations in Ukraine, without venturing to give an exact date.

The BND considered indeed, contrary to the British and Americans, that the decision of the offensive would indeed be taken in an individual way and, so to speak, arbitrary, by the Russian president, making it impossible to give a precise date. And to remember, as such, that the Anglo-Saxons were wrong twice before giving the correct date, just a few days before February 2.

To obtain this result, according to Bruno Kahl, the BND has set up an important human intelligence network in Russia, giving it an effective understanding of the developments taking place within the Kremlin as well as the Armies and the society of the country. Clearly, this intelligence gathering mechanism remains in place and effective today, allowing the BND to have a relatively clear view of the balance of power in the country, and therefore of their influence on the conduct of the war.

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