MGCS program: the time for bad solutions is approaching for France

Only a few weeks ago, French planning for its combat tank fleet remained anchored on the start of deliveries in 2035, targeted by the Franco-German Main Ground Combat System or MGCS program, which was to allow us to replace the French Leclercs like the Leopard 2 Germans at this deadline.

This posture was then surprising, and even worrying, since many declarations across the Rhine seemed to refer toa likely shift in the program beyond 2040, and more likely 2045.

Just a month ago, the acquisition by the Bundeswehr of 18 Leopard X, a new version of the German tank, export champion since the middle of the Eighties, gave much weight to the various German declarations about the schedule of MGCS, this bringing the Chief of Staff of the Army, the General Pierre Schill, to consider a possible life extension of the French Leclerc to reach this deadline of 2045, when questioned by a member of the Defense Committee of the National Assembly.

The threat of Leopard 2A8 on the MGCS program

Since this announcement, just 2 weeks ago, the context surrounding the MGCS program has again changed significantly, since the Czech Republic announced that it had mandated its Minister of Defense to acquire 70 of the new Leopard German 2A8 as part of the modernization of its armies.

In addition, several other armed forces, especially in Europe, with the Netherlands and probably Italy, also seem to be in the running to acquire the new armored vehicle from Krauss Maffei Wegmann.

This dynamic, as long as it continues and intensifies, is likely to profoundly disrupt the export addressable market of the MGCS program when the tank enters service in 2045, while reinforcing KMW in its ambition to design a new version of the tank, even more advanced, the Leopard 2AX, which we can easily imagine synthesizing the A8 and the technological advances made by Rheinmetall with the KF51 Panther, the latter seeing commercial opportunities recede as the successes of Leopard 2 which multiply.

Obviously, such a hypothesis would be most problematic for the Army, but also for Nexter and even for the MGCS program. Indeed, if a new hybrid version of the Leopard 2 with Panther were to emerge, it is likely that it would meet with significant success on the international scene.

This would involve replacing the fleets of Leopard 2A4 still in service, but also in Germany, to expand the operational potential of the Bundeswehr, and possibly replace or modernize the Leopard 2A6 currently in service towards this much more efficient standard.

Consequently, even the deadline of 2045 currently considered would come to be threatened, since the new armored vehicles delivered will have an operational life of at least equal to 30 years, bringing the deadline for their replacement beyond 2055.

For German industry and the Bundeswehr, such a development is neutral, and even positive since it makes it possible to seize a market again independently with reduced investments while providing the armies with modern and efficient equipment.

France in a difficult position

The situation is quite different for France, which is likely to have to face, in a relatively short time, options concerning the future of its tank fleet as well as its defense industry dedicated to heavy armor, none of which is satisfactory. , quite the contrary.

Moreover, here, the Ministry of the Armed Forces like the Army will have three possibilities, extend the Leclercs, develop a new tank or buy an off-the-shelf armored vehicle. As we will see, each of them is based on many more constraints than opportunities.

The first solution is none other than that already envisaged by General Schill concerning the postponement of the MGCS program from 2035 to 2045, namely the extension of the life of the Leclercs. However, if the hypothesis had already raised eyebrows among specialists on the subject, when mentioned by the CLS, it has, so to speak, no chance of constituting an effective alternative to reach 2055 or beyond.

Indeed, the armored vehicles in service in France, few in number, are often solicited, and therefore tested by 25 years of service. In fact, the extension of the fleet will be done not only to the detriment of its efficiency, but also of its mass, attrition by exaggerated wear coming to erode the fleet in a certain way over the years to come.

In addition, the Leclerc's possibilities for development are limited, unless it involves a major overhaul as in the case of the Leopard German 2AX or British Challenger III.

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