It's a good time to exit the deterrent investments from the budget deficit

France invests between €5 and €7 billion each year to finance the most important component of its defense, namely its nuclear deterrent. Relying on 4 Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines, each armed with 16 M45 and M51 intercontinental ballistic missiles, as well as two squadrons of fighters Rafale Armed with ASMPA supersonic nuclear missiles, French deterrence is designed to keep at bay any adversary who comes to threaten the country or its strategic interests, even if it is itself equipped with a deterrent force. In the years to come, with the development of new 3rd generation nuclear ballistic missile submarines which will replace the Triomphant class ships from the end of the next decade, that of the replacement for the ASMPA missile as well as the modernization of the forces supporting implementation, the cost of French deterrence is expected to increase significantly, to settle between €8 and €10 billion per year under the next Military Programming Law.

If French deterrence constitutes the main pillar of national defense as well as a critical component of that of the European countries allied with France within the framework of the European Union or NATO, it also represents a budgetary weight of the most significant. , handicapping the financing of other programs in the conventional sphere. This actually harms the performance of the French armies but also the innovation and therefore export capabilities of its defense industry. At the same time, France is, like its European partners in the euro zone, subject to the budgetary stability pact, and must bring its budgetary deficit below the 3% of GDP mark. On several occasions in recent years, voices have been raised in France and elsewhere, in an attempt to get defense investments out of the count of the public deficit, which has handicapped the countries which are making a major effort in this area for the benefit of the entire alliance, while it favors those who invest significantly less in this area, and who rely in fact on the collective defense capability to balance their public expenditure.

But a flaw has just appeared in the intransigence of the Europeans, in particular that of the countries that are the most firm on budgetary balances. Indeed, following the Russian aggression against Ukraine, defense and investment postures in this area have been completely called into question, including in the budgetary area. Thus, two days ago, the Estonian Prime Minister, the very determined Kaja Kallas, announced that she intended to propose to her European partners the implementation of a co-investment and co-development procedure comparable to that set up during the Covid crisis, to finance the production and acquisition of ammunition, in particular artillery, in order to quickly reinforce the stocks of the European armies and to effectively support the Ukrainian armies which are very strained in this area. Other countries, such as Poland but also Italy, have implemented investment strategies inspired by those inherited from the Covid crisis and relying on European funding to finance the modernization of their armies. In this context, it is perhaps relevant for France to request the removal of investments linked to nuclear deterrence from the calculation of budget deficits within the framework of the stability pact.

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