AUKUS: The sale of American submarines to Australia could be a zero-sum game according to the US Congress

Beyond the diplomatic crisis generated with France following the cancellation of the Attack-class submarine program, the program aimed at equipping the Royal Australian Navy with nuclear-powered submarines of American-British construction, in the framework of the AUKUS alliance, could well turn out to be a zero-sum game. It is in any case the warning given by two American senators, Rhode Island Democratic Sen. Jack Reed and Oklahoma Republican Sen. James Inhofe in a Dec. 21 letter to the White House. " We believe that current conditions require a sober assessment of the facts to avoid stressing the U.S. submarine industrial base to breaking point."

In their letter, the two American senators specify that the average production of nuclear-powered attack submarines of the Virginia class during the last 5 years will have been only 1,2 ships per year, and warn the executive against any ambition to deflect submarines destined for the US Navy to its ally before the specific needs of the US Navy have been met, which would not provide any operational advantage to US forces or even allies, especially in the Pacific against China. While James Inhofe, a member of the highly influential Senate Armed Services Committee at the time this letter was written, retired on the occasion of the renewal of part of the Senate, Senator Jack Reed remained Chairman of this Committee in the new legislature. The concern expressed by the two Senators comes as the 18-month study period announced during the creation of the Aukus alliance, precisely to study the solutions allowing the RAN to acquire submarines nuclear-powered attack aircraft, will end in March.

The American submarine fleet today consists of 14 nuclear ballistic missile submarines and 4 nuclear cruise missile submarines of the Ohio class, 3 nuclear attack submarines (SSN) of the Sea classwolf, 26 Los Angeles-class SSNs and 21 Virginia-class SSNs. Among these ships, the Ohio class submarines, the oldest of which reach the operational age of 38 years, such as the Los Angeles, the oldest of which has 37 years of service, must soon be withdrawn from service, to be respectively replaced by the new Colombia class SSBNs which are due to enter service from 2027, and by the Virginia class SSNs already in service. In addition, the US Navy is committed to a plan to grow its SSN fleet to 70 units by 2040. This therefore involves the manufacture and addition to service of 12 Columbia-class SSBNs and 46 SSNs. over a period of 17 years, i.e. 1 SSBN every 2 years and 2,7 SSN per year, a pace that American shipyards will struggle to maintain, even despite the significant efforts undertaken in this area by manufacturers and the US Navy.

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