The Russian mobilization could have greatly exceeded the 300.000 men announced

To cope with the heavy losses recorded since the start of the conflict in Ukraine, Vladimir announced on September 21 a partial mobilization of 300.000 men aged 18 to 49. According to the announcements made by the Russian leader and his Defense Minister, Sergei Shoighou, it was above all a question of mobilizing men with recent military experience (-5 years), while discarding the idea of ​​general mobilization, intimately linked to the very concept of war, this going against the narrative of the Kremlin which, since the beginning of the conflict, has spoken of Special Military Operations. Numerous testimonies on Russian social networks have shown that this mobilization, partial as it was, was very moderately appreciated by the Russians themselves, with in particular a large exodus of young men to Georgia and other neighboring countries following its announcement. Other testimonies have shown that the conditions of recruitment, integration and training of the mobilized were of very poor quality, and will therefore not be likely to produce effective and operational troops within the announced deadlines.

However, it seems that the number of those mobilized has greatly exceeded the threshold of 300.000 announced by the Kremlin. In effect, according to Russian independent news site Mediazona, it could almost reach 500.000 men. To arrive at this figure, the site's journalists compiled data relating to the very significant increase in marriages in the Russian oblasts and regions following the announcement of the mobilization. Indeed, to benefit from the pensions and indemnities paid by the Russian Ministry of Defense in the event of death in combat, the spouses of Russian soldiers must be legally married, and identified as such in the soldier's military documents. In fact, the number of marriages increased considerably following the announcement of September 21, with 31.000 new marriages celebrated during the 3 weeks following this announcement in 75 of the 85 administrative regions of the country, 6 times more than in normal times on an identical period.

According to the site, this increase makes it possible to determine that the mobilization rate reaches not less than 1% as announced by the Russian authorities, but 1,56%, and therefore represents a compensated total of 492.000 men mobilized over this period, 64% more than announced by the country's authorities. In addition, there is a strong regional disparity in the rate of mobilization, the regions of Siberia and the Caucasus being by far the most represented, the big cities, such as Moscow and Saint-Petersburg, the most preserved, in particular because of the determined action by their mayors like Sergei Sobyanin, mayor of Moscow since 2013, who has been very quick to minimize the effects of the mobilization in his city. Beyond this mobilization, which is by nature very visible, the Russian defense effort seems to have intensified in many other areas, particularly in that of arms production. Thus, several testimonies that we have collected indicate that the industrial subcontracting network of the major Russian defense companies is now under pressure, with a very significant acceleration in production rates, and very ambitious objectives, to increase the rates delivery up to 7 times pre-war rates.

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