An annexation of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China by 2027 is now the working scenario for all American forces, which must quickly transform to meet the considerable challenge posed by the People's Liberation Army.
In March 2021, the Commander-in-Chief of U.S. Forces Pacific, Admiral Phil Davidson, stunned his audience by announcing that, in his view, it was to be expected that the Chinese authorities would launch military operations with a view to annexing the island of Taiwan from here to 2027.
According to the American officer, there was indeed a flagrant dichotomy between the trajectory presented by Beijing according to which China was to become a world military power by 2050, and the reality of the effort observed, which suggested a crossing curves between the United States and China much earlier than that.
Furthermore, taking into account the benefits of the short distance separating the Chinese coast from that of Taiwan, and the progress made in terms of naval interdiction by the Chinese armed forces, there was every reason to believe that Beijing would have a window of operational opportunities even before the end of the decade, i.e. before the effects of the modernization and extension programs of the American forces undertaken from 2017, can effectively weigh in the balance of power .
It seems that this deadline of 2027 is now the working hypothesis for the entire US Navy. In effect, the Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Gilday, did not say anything else during his speech at a digital symposium organized by the Atlantic Council.
According to him, everything leads to believe that Beijing is considering military action against Taiwan before 2027, namely the end of President Xi Jinping's new term. To support its predictions, the NOC specified that China had, so far, perfectly respected its schedule for the rise in power, and that nothing suggested that it would be otherwise in the years to come.
And to add that this deadline of 2027 represented a high deadline, and that he had to anticipate a possible Chinese offensive against Taiwan today, and over the whole of this period.
The hypothesis raised by Admiral Gilday is far from being devoid of meaning, even if it supposes a very important risk-taking on the part of China. Indeed, today the Chinese armies are far from being effectively able to carry out a vast amphibious operation against Taiwan, and even less a naval blockade strategy, while the Chinese Navy only aligns around thirty modern destroyers, as many frigates, soon three aircraft carriers and around ten large amphibious ships, as well as around forty submarines. -modern sailors.
In terms of air forces, Beijing can rely on a thousand modern fighters, including a hundred new generation J-20 fighters, but less than twenty support planes (Awacs, in-flight refueling); while its land forces line up around fifty operational brigades, including eight amphibious brigades.
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[…] shortened schedule. For the American officer, the US Navy now estimates that a Chinese offensive against the autonomous island since 1949 is likely by 2027, and could even intervene in the very near future, specifying that the window […]