4 Reasons to Accelerate the Schedule of SCAF and MGCS Programs

While Franco-German cooperation around the 6th generation SCAF combat aircraft programs and the new generation MGCS combat tank program seemed destined to join the very long list of aborted defense industrial cooperation, the Minister for the Armed Forces, Sebastien Lecornu and German Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht announced at a joint press conference last week that these programs will come to an end, suggesting that the executive on both sides of the Rhine now intended to regain control over the conduct of these programs. This reaffirmed and determined political will, but also the geopolitical and budgetary context of the two countries, trace all the constraints that apply to the pursuit of these two programs, and open up new highly relevant perspectives if they are seizures. The most important of these is none other than the redefinition of the schedules which today frame the development of this major equipment. Indeed, there are 4 arguments in favor of accelerating developments, and shortening of the schedule of the two programs : the operational needs of the armies, the evolution of the international market, the new means available to the armies of the two countries as well as the reduction of the industrial risks and constraints surrounding them.

1- Facing the new arms race

According to Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation, the SCAF program will not be able to produce, in its current format, a new operational aircraft before the end of the 2040s, whereas initially it was a question of the first combat aircraft being delivered at the end of the next decade. Until then, it will therefore be up to the French Rafales and the German Typhoons to hold the line, including in the face of the arrival of new aircraft such as the Russian Su-57 as well as the Chinese J-20 and J-35, all designed to belong to the 5th generation of combat aircraft, if this classification is relevant. In addition, Beijing would develop other models such as the JH-XX intended to replace the JH-7 fighter bombers, and would have already undertaken to design a 6th generation fighter that should enter service around 2035, together with the American NGAD and the British Tempest. At the same time, Moscow and Beijing will implement their new Pak-DA and HH-20 stealth strategic bombers, with performances that we imagine close to those of the new American B-21 Raider. In the field of anti-aircraft defenses too, many advances are expected in the next 20 years, whether with the arrival of new ground-to-air systems, sometimes hypersonic, such as the S-500 and the replacement for the HQ-9 in development, or by the proliferation of directed energy weapons and combat drones. Despite their ability to be modernized, neither the Rafale nor the Typhoon will be able to cope effectively with these new systems, or at least to have the technological ascendancy required by Western doctrine.

If the KF-21 Boramae confirms its ambitions, it could well seize in the years to come many market shares vis-à-vis traditional outlets of the European aeronautical industry.

The problem is strictly the same concerning heavy armored vehicles, and even seems much more pressing, judging by the attraction generated by the South Korean K2 Black Panther in recent months, as well as the new K51 Panther presented by Rheinmetall during of the Eurosatory 2022 show. Indeed, beyond the relative dilapidation of the German Leopard 2 and French Leclerc that the MGCS program aims to replace beyond 2035 in the best case, neither Nexter in France nor Krauss Maffei Wegman in Germany has a mass production line to manufacture these armored vehicles, even though the need for modernization of the tank fleet in Europe and in the world has been clearly highlighted by the war in Ukraine. If one can reasonably doubt the fact that the Russian Armies will be able to equip themselves with a vast fleet of the new T-14 Armata by 2035, and if no public information confirms to date the existence of a although a probable program aimed at replacing the Chinese Type 099A, the absence of a European solution for a modern heavy tank weighs all the same seriously on the geopolitical balances in Europe. Beyond the purely industrial aspects, the war in Ukraine has also shown the absolute necessity of now equipping front-line armored vehicles with new generation protection systems, in particular Hard-Kill systems, as well as new communication and of detection, for which the tanks of previous generation, like the Leopard 2, the Leclerc but also the Abrams or the T-90, are not optimized.

2- Preserve and expand export market share

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