Russian military deployment around Ukraine reaches critical threshold

For several months now, since November 2021, the Russian armies have been deploying and stationing a large number of troops around Ukraine, whether along the border with Donbass, in Crimea, and along the northern border. from the country. At the Fun of December, physical and satellite observations made it possible to estimate the number of soldiers deployed in the immediate vicinity of Ukraine's borders at 100.000, and at around sixty the number of combined arms battalions, the Russian equivalent of the Battle Group Inter-Armes, or GTIA, French, constituted. But in recent days, Moscow has proceeded to a significant reinforcement of the forces deployed, with a reinforcement of 30.000 soldiers sent to Belarus, including a majority of airborne forces, and the acceleration of the number of combined arms battalion assembled, to reach a hundred , or 60% of the theoretical operational forces of the country, today between 165 and 175 potential combined arms battalions and 70 brigades.

At the same time, Moscow has begun a vast redeployment of its naval assets, with exercises in the Atlantic, the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, bringing together a total of 140 ships, and with the supposed aim of moving some of these units deployed so far. in the North Atlantic, in the Baltic Sea and in the Mediterranean towards the Black Sea. In fact, in less than a week, the Russian armed forces will have assembled a sufficient operational device to carry out a multi-front offensive operation, including naval and airborne, against Ukraine, which explains the intensification of defensive preparations in Kyiv. , as well as diplomatic ballet to try to defuse this crisis with potential critical consequences for Europe.

However, a generalized offensive on Ukraine would be a most perilous undertaking for Moscow, in debit of the immense military force assembled. On the one hand, even if they are armed with less advanced equipment, and in lesser quantities, the Ukrainian armed forces are far from negligible, fielding a strong land force of more than 200.000 men divided into about twenty brigades armored, mechanized or motorized, and having more than 1500 combat tanks, for more than half of the modernized T-64s, the rest being composed of T72 and 780 also modernized, 2500 infantry fighting vehicles BMP 1- 2-3, and a good thousand self-propelled artillery systems, including about sixty 2S19 Msta-S.

To these line units are added three elite units, the 10th Mountain Brigade, the 85th Air Assault Brigade, and the 36th Marine Infantry Brigade, capable of carrying out very high intensity operations and equal play with the best Russian units. On the other hand, these forces lack capabilities in the air domain, with less than 80 Mig-29 and Su-27 fighters in the theoretical fleet, supported by around thirty Su-24 and Su-25 bombers, and if anti-aircraft defenses are numerous, with nearly 500 S-300PT/S, Kub (SA-6), Buk and TOR systems, these are essentially obsolete materials, which are moreover of Soviet origin, and therefore perfectly known to the Russian air forces . Its naval forces, finally, consist of an out of order frigate, as well as a few light patrol boats, incapable of posing any opposition to the Russian Black Sea fleet.

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