Germany wants to assess the interest of the F-35 to replace its Tornado

“Oh, what a surprise” the most cynical will say. According to the German site Die Zeit, the new Minister of Defense Christine Lambrecht would indeed have undertaken to reconsider the decision of the one who preceded her in the function, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who in 2020 had arbitrated in favor of the acquisition of 30 Boeing F/A 18 E/F Super Hornet fighter bombers and 15 EA-18G Growler electronic warfare aircraft in order to respectively replace the Tornado dedicated to NATO's shared nuclear mission, and the Tornado ECR for electronic warfare and suppression of the adversary's anti-aircraft defenses. According to the article, the German Minister, in agreement with Chancellor Olaf Scholz, would have launched a consultation to study the relevance of acquiring F-35As rather than Super Hornets, but also an electronic warfare version of the Typhoon in place of the Growler, to replace the Tornado dedicated to these missions. The question is, Does she really have any other choices? ?

Indeed, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer's refereeing looked more like a boot in touch than a real decision, as the unknowns remained numerous. First of all, neither the Pentagon, nor NATO, nor even the US Navy had previously considered qualifying the Super Hornet to use NATO's standard nuclear bomb, the B61-Mod12. The only aircraft to be qualified for this ammunition were, in 2020 when the German decision was announced, the F-35A, the F15E, the F16 C/D and the B2 Spirit. By favoring the Super Hornet over the Lightning 2, Berlin therefore hoped to get Washington to change its positions and integrate the device into the nuclear weapon qualification program. But this was not the case, and for the moment, no decision in favor of this qualification has been announced across the Atlantic, especially since the 4 other countries participating in this NATO shared deterrence mission, Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey are implementing or planning to do so, F-35As or F-16s (case of Turkey). In other words, outside of Berlin, no one needs a B61-Mod12 qualified Super Hornet.

Furthermore, although the American aircraft has participated in all major recent competitions against the F-35 as well as against the Rafale and Typhoon, it has not established itself in any of them, and has not recorded any export orders since 2015 and the Kuwaiti order. It was notably eliminated from the 3 most promising competitions for it aimed at replacing F/A 18 Hornets in Canada, Finland and Switzerland. As for the chances that the aircraft could win in new competitions, in Spain for replacing the Iberian Hornets, or in India to equip the countries' aircraft carriers, they are, according to many observers, low at best. Finally, the US Navy intends to stop the acquisition of new aircraft by fiscal year 2023, the 12 aircraft ordered in 2022 having only been ordered by Congressional decision to maintain the Saint-Louis production line. in activity.

In other words, the future of the Super Hornet is more than uncertain, even in the short term, and betting on this aircraft for Berlin was undoubtedly a risk, partly conditioned by political pressure from Paris to preserve the Franco-German FCAS program from any potential interference linked to the acquisition of F-35. However, the difficulties encountered today, and which lead to a re-evaluation of the arbitration made in 2020, were at least predictable. We can, therefore, wonder to what extent the sequence which is opening today was not anticipated by the German authorities. Indeed, a decision in favor of the F-35 would without the slightest doubt have created significant tensions in the Franco-German couple regarding the FCAS program in 2020, when it was still in its infancy. On the other hand, it is unlikely, today, that France will react with as much determination in the face of a change of direction from Berlin in this matter, now that the agreements and funding for the design phase of the demonstrators have been approved. on both sides of the Rhine, at the risk of threatening the sustainability of this strategic program for the French executive.

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