The Chinese island of Hainan, with its 34.000 km2 and 1.500 km of coastline, is itself a province of the country which is home to 8 million inhabitants and has numerous defense infrastructures, in particular the nuclear submarine base of Longpo next to the city of Yulin, is in many ways a full-scale replica of the island of Taiwan, with its 36.000 km2 and its 1550 km coastline. Obviously, the matter did not escape the strategists of the People's Liberation Army, who organized, this weekend, a huge air naval and amphibious exercise, taking place precisely on the whole of Hainan Island, with numerous amphibious and naval assault exercises along 3 different axes including live ammunition fire. The number and nature of the forces mobilized in this exercise have not been communicated by the Chinese authorities, but given the large maritime areas prohibited to navigation between Wednesday and Friday, it is likely that these are more than substantial.
This massive exercise is obviously intended, beyond the training of PLA personnel, to increase the pressure on the Taiwanese authorities, while the friction between the two countries, as well as with the Western camps on the subject of this crisis continues to grow. More than an exercise, it is therefore a demonstration of forces, itself taking place a few weeks after the Chinese air force had made the demonstration of their ability to deploy air assets beyond the island of Taiwan, wanting to show by this that they were able to oppose a possible Western force coming to support the independent island in the event of an assault launched from the continent. It also shows that the threat of military intervention against the island of Taiwan should no longer be considered in the future, even the near future, but in an immediate perception.
This maneuver comes in an international context that is more than problematic for Washington, already in great demand on the European front in the face of direct threats to Ukraine from Moscow, but also in the Middle East, while Jerusalem continues to push the United States. to give them the green light to carry out strikes against Iran's nuclear program. However, each of these crises in gestation presents significant risks not only of evolving towards an open conflict between important military powers, but also of going beyond their initial framework, and thus of requiring a direct intervention of the American armed forces. Worse still, the risk of seeing the outbreak of one of these crises dragging one or the other, or even both, in its wake, is far from negligible, especially since it would correspond to the worst-case scenario for Washington. .
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