What answers if Turkey bought S-400 systems from Russia again?

The Turkish President, RT Erdogan, once again met his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, in the seaside town of Sochi on the shores of the Black Sea. Among the many subjects discussed by the two heads of state, the acquisition by Ankara of a second regiment of S-400 long-range anti-aircraft systems appears to be most problematic from a western point of view. Turkey's first order for two complete S-400 batteries in 2017 prompted a strong response from Washington, Donald Trump having, after much procrastination and under pressure from Congress, decided to exclude Ankara from the F-35 program, and to cancel Turkey's order for 2020 F-100A and F-35B aircraft in 35. For President Erdogan, who has not officially announced a new order for the S-400 system or other Russian defense systems covered by US CAATSA legislation designed to prevent Russia, and to a lesser extent China, from exporting its major defense equipment by threatening economic and technological sanctions on potential customers, the choice of whether or not to acquire additional S-400s is a purely national matter , and no other country or alliance has a voice in this matter.

During the meeting with Vladimir Poutine on September 28, the subject was discussed, as well as the possible industrial participation of Turkey in the manufacture of the systems acquired, which supposes a transfer of technology. But if the first order, placed in a particular context when the United States had, for a time, refused to export the Patriot system to Turkey after the 2016 coup attempt, this explains Washington's moderate response. and the absence of a response from other NATO members, a new order would, this time, be an act of defiance on the part of President Erdogan vis-à-vis the United States, which cannot remain without an exemplary response. In this context, what can be the responses from Washington and the allies, and what would be the potential consequences for Turkey, and for the security of NATO's southern flank?

The situation is far from simple for Washington. The use of the threat is unlikely to have any effect, Donald Trump having repeatedly threatened after Ankara's acquisition of the first S-400s to hit the Turkish economy and local currency , without ever putting their money where their mouth is, and even displaying a certain complicity with President Erdogan, in particular during the NATO summit in London in 2019, to the chagrin of France which awaited a firm condemnation from Turkey by the Alliance on the subject of the military support provided, in contradiction with the resolutions of the Security Council of Nations United by Ankara to the authorities in Tripoli in the context of the Libyan civil war. In addition, if Turkey was definitely ousted from the F-35 program, sanctions on military equipment were quickly relaxed, allowing Ankara in particular to motorize its ships, helicopters and armored vehicles exported with American, German or British solutions. .

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