Tension is growing in the Swiss confederation as the announcement of the choice of combat aircraft model to replace the F/A 18 Hornet and F-5 Tiger, scheduled for the end of this month, draws closer. And according to the information site lematin.ch, which is one of the flagship titles of the country's leading press group, the Rafale would appear as Bern's favorite in this highly strategic competition for all the manufacturers involved. Indeed, according to the article published today, the Swiss authorities would favor a European solution over an American aircraft, both for political and operational reasons, the two European aircraft manufacturers involved, Airbus Defense&Space and the Eurofighter consortium presented by Berlin for the Typhoon, and Dassault Aviation presented by Paris for the Rafale, accompanied by a more successful industrial and security cooperation package that is more respectful of Swiss specificities.
For lematin.ch, several pieces of information suggest that the French offer would be favored by Berne, particularly due to the greater exposure of Rafale in the presentations of the Ministry of Defense, but also by the choice announced a few months ago of thea Thales Skyview solution to pilot the country's anti-aircraft defense. Objectively, these data do not constitute formal indications of choice, but it seems that the journalist had access to unofficial confidences on the subject. However, other information suggests that Paris now considers its offer to be in a good position in this competition.
Indeed, first of all, Dassault and the Team Rafale remain very mobilized around this competition, even though several other hot topics occupy them. Thus, during an interview given to the BFM Business Channel, Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation, indicated that he intended to record at least two new orders this year, one of them coming from India, 'other from a second unspecified country. In addition, we know that discussions are very advanced with Indonesia, and that discussions are underway with other countries, such as the United Arab Emirates or Iraq. However, in recent years, Dassault has shown that it knows how to concentrate its efforts on competitions and markets with potential, and withdraw from non-open competitions, such as in Canada or Belgium. Therefore, the fact that the French aircraft manufacturer is continuing its efforts and its involvement in Switzerland, as well as in Finland, demonstrates that it firmly believes in its chances.
Secondly, and more subtly, we note that the Ministry of the Armed Forces has not yet no fleet regularization order announced concerning the 12 Rafales which will be acquired second-hand from France by Croatia. Of course, the contract has not yet been officially signed, but the absence of an announcement in this area seems to show that Dassault and the Ministry of the Armed Forces are anticipating new orders in the short term, potentially scaling up the production chain. Rafale in the years to come. For the industrialist, it is in fact necessary to smooth out its production capacities as best as possible, which can range from 11 to 36 devices per year for the Merignac assembly line, over time, while respecting the delivery schedules of the export customers. Under these conditions, it may be preferable to postpone the replacement of the 12 Croatian aircraft beyond 2023/2024, the date on which they will actually be taken from the Air Force inventories, so as to maintain stable and optimized production. as long as possible, if possible even until NGF production begins.
Remember that the French armies are awaiting the delivery of 28 Rafale F3R between 2022 and 2024, including 27 for the Air and Space Force and one example for Naval Aeronautics, to which add the 12 Rafale offset from the Greek order and 30 F4 standard planes to be delivered between 2027 and 2029. In addition to these 70 aircraft, Dassault must also produce 30 new Rafale for Egypt and 6 for Greece, with a probable rapid expansion of 6 other devices. Therefore, the probable orders Indian (36 devices), Indonesian (36 devices) and potentially Switzerland (Approx. 40 devices) and Finnish (56 devices), carry in each of them a very significant dimensioning effect, which must be integrated before adding load for the replacement of the 12 Rafale Croatians. It is therefore likely that these devices, which will naturally be replaced to comply with the format of the 2013 white paper and the 2017 strategic review, will not be ordered before Dassault and the French State have a clear vision of the future load plan, i.e. beyond 2022 and therefore the current judiciary, for a delivery which, obviously, will not take place before the next Programming Law, and will be done directly to standard F4.2.
The final choice of Bern could be made on June 23 according to lematin.ch, and there is no doubt that the 4 manufacturers still in the running are all mobilized as this decision will be decisive. Thus, for Boeing and its F/A 18 E/F Super Hornet, a Swiss (or Finnish) order would mean maintaining the production line of the aircraft for another 2 years, while the US Navy has decided not to No need to order any new Super Hornets from now on. The same goes for the Typhoon European, since the aircraft will no longer be ordered by London, and probably no longer by Berlin beyond the replacement of the Tornado announced last year. As for the F35A, this would be a major commercial argument in a country renowned for the rigor of its selection processes, especially as the US Air Force continues its revolt to reduce the volume of aircraft that it she is supposed to acquire.
For the Rafale, a decision in its favor from Berne would also be more than strategic. It would indeed be a first victory for the French aircraft over the American F35A in an open competition and not influenced by considerations coming from NATO. This would also allow Dassault Aviation and the French BITD to increase its collaborations with the Swiss defense industry, especially since the French industrial compensation offer has been carefully developed to be sustainable and sustainable over time. Finally, this would confirm the attractiveness of Rafale F4 today, as an economical and efficient alternative to the F35A, while extending the installed base, and therefore reducing maintenance and development costs over time. In addition, and indirectly, the choice in favor of the French aircraft could influence the decision concerning the Swiss anti-aircraft defense system for which the Franco-Italian SAMP/T Mamba is confronted with the American Patriot. All that remains to be done is to wait for the official designation of the winner within 2 or 3 weeks. However, it is important to remain cautious about rumors and over-interpreted information, and above all not to declare victory too early.