Is a Maskirovka on the way over Russian-Ukrainian tensions?

Popularized by the excellent "Red Storm" by Tom Clancy and Larry Bond, author of the equally excellent naval warfare simulation Harpoon, the Maskirovka is an intelligence operation aimed at creating from scratch a casus belli justifying the legitimate engagement of forces. The novel which describes a hypothetical conflict between the Soviet Union and NATO against the backdrop of an energy crisis, presents an evolved scenario concerning this Soviet Maskirovka, intended to mobilize the population around an attack against NATO following an attack targeting the elites of the Communist Party, so called by the German secret services, while at the same time, the armies were undergoing intensive preparation, and the population was conditioned with a great deal of propaganda, in order to increase its distrust of vis of the Federal Republic of Germany presented as depositary of the order of the Teutonic Knights as of Nazism.

It was only a novel, of course. Yet the mechanisms described resemble, in many ways, the dynamics underway in Russia today with regard to Ukraine. While thePresident Zelensky and the Ukrainian General Staff obstinately refuse to respond to provocations led by the separatist forces of Donbass, the speech of the Kremlin, but also of its pharmacies, is now intended to be more offensive. This is how Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Russian National Security Council, said that Kiev and its secret services were preparing to carry out sabotage operations and attacks in Crimea by relying on the Tatar minority of the peninsula to carry out these destabilization operations. Can it, therefore, that the Ukrainian authorities have become, after 6 years of resilience, completely stupid and suicidal to the point of deciding to conduct such operations in Crimea even though an eighth of the Russian Army is massed in its borders?

After Sergei Ryabkov and Dmitry Peskov, it is the turn of Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Russian National Security Council and close to Vladimir Putin, to occupy the media scene to implicate Ukraine in a supposed attempted attack in Crimea.

The rest of this article is for subscribers only

Full-access articles are available in the “ Free Items“. Subscribers have access to the full Analyses, OSINT and Synthesis articles. Articles in the Archives (more than 2 years old) are reserved for Premium subscribers.

From €6,50 per month – No time commitment.

Related posts