Experts from Think Tank RAND Corporation, one of the oldest and most respected think tanks on strategic matters, delivered a final verdict after repeatedly and in several scenarios faking a hypothetical Chinese military intervention to retake Taiwan, and an equally hypothetical American intervention to prevent them. According to them, the chances of success of the American and Taiwanese forces are minimal, as Chinese military power is today designed almost exclusively for this single mission. These same experts also believe that the loss of Taiwan could have extremely harmful effects on the positions of the allies of the United States in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean, with a possible domino effect on the existing regional alliances, to the point of threatening the Washington's very position on the world stage.
After having submitted wargames on the subject to a large number of senior officers, the military experts of the RAND Corporation no longer have any doubts: in the current state of affairs, and of the existing balance of power, a Chinese offensive over Taiwan would result in a very likely quick victory for Beijing. Not only would the defense forces of the independent island be neutralized in a few hours by massive strikes of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and air forces from the continent, eliminating from the first minutes of the engagement almost all of the air forces and navies defending the island; but the nearby American and allied bases, such as Guam and Okinawa, would also be so badly affected that they would lose all operational effectiveness. As for a hypothetical American naval and amphibious air force, it would be kept outside a security perimeter formed by the Chinese Navy and air forces, without being able to intervene to come to the aid of Taipei.
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