Why would increasing the Army budget by € 24bn cost public finances less than € 3bn?

In 2021, the Ministry of the Armed Forces and the French Parliament must consult on what is called a “review clause” concerning the 2019-2025 Military Programming Law currently in progress. The objective of this procedure is to adapt the ambitions and main axes of the LPM to changes in needs, technologies and the international situation, so as to make it more efficient. As we've already covered it, and unlike other European countries such as Italy, the Hotel de Brienne, and especially the Ministry of Finance and the Presidency of the Republic, did not consider it relevant to channel part of the resources devoted to the Recovery Plan Covid towards the Armed Forces, believing that the LPM constituted in itself a sufficient recovery plan.

However, the overall situation has changed significantly since the drafting of the 2019 Strategic Review, which served as the basis for the LPM 2019-2025. Indeed, in addition to international tensions which have greatly increased, many new threats have appeared or have progressed considerably, such as hypersonic weapons, cyber warfare or electronic warfare, and all French Chiefs of Staff are trying to somehow to draw attention to the return of the risk of high intensity conflict, for which the French armies, even following the LPM, are not optimized. In this context, is it possible to increase the resources allocated to the armies to respond, during the current LPM, to these challenges, or at least to launch the dynamic necessary for this? And is the budgetary effort requested from public finances sustainable in the current economic framework?

What needs for what costs?

In 2021, the army budget in France will reach € 39,2 billion, an increase of € 1,7 billion compared to 2020. In accordance with the Military Programming Law, this budget has seen an increase of almost € 7 billion, or 22%, in 4 years. This is the largest increase in defense appropriations in more than 50 years, and the first time that a Military Programming Law has been strictly respected since the establishment of this type of legislation. In fact, we cannot describe the current government as lax in this area, especially since this increase far exceeds that of the vast majority of other NATO members. However, it will only allow, even if it is completed, to "repair" the damage caused by 20 years of budgetary wandering in terms of Defense on the principle of the "Benefits of Peace", which we know now have been an illusion. And the LPM 2019-2025 does not, in essence, make it possible to restore to the French armies, and in a sufficiently short time frame to face medium-term defense challenges, the capabilities of fight technologically advanced opponents in large-scale and long-term commitments.

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