The highly respected Heritage Fundation, an American think tank known for the relevance of its analyses, published its “ 2020 Index of US Military strengths » which takes stock of American forces to date, and compares it to the state of the threat observed in the world. This new opus offers an enlightening, and worrying, vision of the military balances today, and of the reality of the threats, as well as the means of responding to them, for the United States as for the West. The 500-page document provides a precise analysis, force by force, theater by theater, of military balances, and their developments in the near future. Without engaging in a questionable prospective exercise, it confines itself to known and proven information, which is moreover largely sufficient to justify the conclusions of the analysis:
American forces are undersized by 30% on average,
to be able to achieve all of their objectives.
For 25 years, most of the threat perceived by the United States was represented by Middle Eastern terrorist movements, Iran and North Korea. Today it is concentrated around two main rivals, China and Russia. If the threat posed North Korea has become technologically worse, the Think Tank estimates that the country, and its leader, are less aggressive towards the United States and its allies, justifying a lower threat ranking. The terrorist threat, if it persists, has however been weakened by the elimination of state structures of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, while the Afghan government has opened negotiations with the less radical Taliban movements. Iran, for its part, retains the same potential threat and risks, on the other hand proven military capabilities, a government position considered aggressive, and a geographic location likely to harm American interests. But these 3 threats were eclipsed by those emanating from China and Russia, combining very significant military power, and positions considered aggressive towards the United States, its allies and its interests.
While in 2014, President Obama described Russia as regional power, it is, in 2020, considered by the Heritage Foundation as the only force capable of directly threatening the American national territory, both strategically and conventionally. With 2750 combat tanks, 5100 infantry fighting vehicles, 6100 armored personnel carriers and more than 4000 artillery pieces, the Russian ground forces are among the best equipped regarding heavy equipment. The entry into service of the new Ratnik outfits, a large number of portable missiles and light drones, and the very significant increase in training at all scales, contribute to significantly strengthening the effectiveness of these forces. Deployment in combat zones, in Syria or the Donbass, accentuates this phenomenon.
The Russian Navy, although it only fields 35 offshore surface combatants, employs 58 submarines including 10 SSBNs, and 12 SSNs, as well as 105 corvettes and patrol boats which often carry heavy weapons, such as the Kalibr cruise missile. The Russian air forces have more than 1200 combat aircraft and 350 combat helicopters. In addition to these conventional forces, there are 334 intercontinental ballistic missiles, very capable cyber forces, and a significant space dimension. If Russia has not shown any desire to directly threaten the United States until now, Moscow has shown real ambitions vis-à-vis certain European countries, notably the Baltic countries and in the Balkans, in the South Caucasus, or in the Arctic. The country has also largely strengthened its positions in the Black Sea, the White Sea, the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean.
China represents the adversary with the greatest military and economic potential against the United States. Paradoxically, it is by reducing its troops by more than 280.000 soldiers that the Chinese General Staff managed to significantly increase the country's military potential. The increase in Chinese military power is based on an unprecedented modernization effort in the country, with the shift from a defensive doctrine based on strength in numbers, to an offensive doctrine combining modern equipment and professional forces. Concomitantly with the development of its armed forces, China has also developed a defense industry which has managed, in 2 decades, to move from the production of licensed or copied equipment, to the production of highly technological equipment of national quality, such as the Type 052D Missile Destroyer, the J10 light fighter, the Type 099 battle tank.
If Beijing continues to acquire certain military equipment, notably from Moscow (Su35, S400), the country has now achieved real strategic autonomy, and a technological level sufficient to be considered by the Heritage Foundation as an adversary with powerful power. military comparable to that of Russia. China cannot directly threaten continental U.S. soil, but it poses a growing threat to its interests and allies in the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean. Taiwan is obviously at the heart of American concerns, but Beijing also has significant frictions with Tokyo, Jakarta, Seoul, and New Delhi. In addition, the Chinese fleet in the Pacific is now significantly superior to the US 7th fleet (140 ships against 50), which can only restore the balance of power with the support of its Japanese, Korean and Australian allies.
The methodical analysis of the military capabilities of its potential adversaries, and taking into account the hypothesis of a possible double commitment in the Pacific against China, and in Europe against Russia, the Heritage Foundation has evaluated the military power necessary so that American Forces can, with their allies, neutralize the threat:
- 50 combat brigades for the US Army (35 today – 30%)
- 400 combat ships and 624 embarked combat aircraft (290 today – 27%)
- 1200 combat aircraft (951 today – 21%)
- 36 Marine battalions (24 today – 33%)
In addition, it recommends significantly increasing the availability of equipment, such as the operational readiness of forces, to the extent that both Russian and Chinese forces have made significant progress in these areas.
It is interesting to note that, while the Heritage Foundation report points to certain technological needs such as in electronic warfare, cyber means, artillery or in the space domain , its main recommendation is to re-establish a digital balance of power. This vision breaks with the doctrines still used by many Western forces, particularly in Europe, which considers that the technology of Western equipment is sufficient to compensate for an unfavorable numerical balance of power. If Russia only has 750.000 men in its armed forces, it has an operational reserve of more than 2 million men, as well as the means to equip them, particularly with heavy equipment (Russia has 6000 tanks and 10.000 armored vehicles ready for use, although of an earlier generation). The Chinese Structure is more difficult to assess, but the demographic potential of the country is so great that the numerical increase of its forces could be both rapid and very significant. Western forces, which have only few reserves, have been reduced to a minimum format in terms of equipment, eliminating any capacity to respond to mobilization by one or other of the main adversaries identified.
We also note that, by recommending such an increase in the size of US forces, the Heritage Foundation considers that it is possible, and even probable, that a conflict between major technological powers is limited to a conventional conflict, without having to resort to weapons. nuclear. However, for the moment, many Western military doctrines, particularly in France, consider such a hypothesis improbable, and therefore build their conventional forces on a paradigm undermined by the American think tank. We can finally wonder how European leaders will justify the current format of their armed forces, and a Defense effort objective of 2% of GDP, while the United States will probably have to increase its Defense investments at beyond 4%.