In a few days, with the launch of the military operation against the Kurds of northern Syria, the Turkish president managed to unite the vast majority of Western public opinion, like chancelleries, against him. The attack by Western Kurdish allies, following statements by President Trump, had already triggered strong reactions in Europe and the United States, but the bombing near an American special forces position and the open threats against Europe by raising the risk of migration, will have finished convincing the most reserved.
This Friday, Turkish forces carried out an artillery bombardment a few hundred meters from a position held by American special forces, near the city of Kobane. No casualties have been reported, but the information caused a stir in the United States, where Congress had already expressed its opposition to the positions of the American president. In fact, the discourse of the American authorities is today evolving towards a tougher position against the Turkish intervention, and there is a strong risk of become more radical with the return of senators from the annual Congressional retreat, which will take place next week, despite the explanations provided by the Turkish authorities regarding this incident.
But it is in Europe that we must find the sharpest critics of the Turkish offensive. All major European capitals unanimously condemned this intervention and called for an end to it. the European Union did the same, through Federica Mogherini, the Head of European Diplomacy
The Turkish operation in northeast Syria may open a new dramatic chapter in the already very dark history of the war in Syria. The potential consequences of such military action are clear to everyone and to us. The repercussions can be extremely serious on humanitarian, political and strategic levels. For all these reasons, we call on Turkey to end its unilateral military action.
Federica Mogherini, at the European Parliament on October 12, 2019
Turkish President RT Erdogan immediately, as we anticipated, threatened Europe with stop maintaining the approximately 4 million refugees who are, today, on its soil, which could create a new migrant crisis in Europe, and in particular in the most exposed countries, such as Greece, and its border countries.
If you (the Europeans) continue to call this operation an invasion, it's very simple, we will open the doors, and leave 3,6 million refugees on your roads
RT Erdogan, in the Turkish parliament, October 12, 2019
If the threat undoubtedly has weight, it seems that it has only strengthened the positions of the European chancelleries, determined to no longer submit to the dictates of the Turkish leader. Already, on October 11, 5 European countries, France, Great Britain, Germany, Poland and Belgium, had requested an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council regarding this offensive, a meeting which was limited by the refusal of the American and Russian representatives to condemn this initiative. But the European response is already looming. So, the Dutch and Norwegian authorities announced that they would stop selling defense equipment or associated technologies in Ankara.
Because if the threat of migrants can indeed prove to be a major problem for Europeans, European sanctions against the Turkish economy and defense industry could end up politically finishing off President Erdogan, already losing popularity. for several months in his country. Indeed, on the international scene, Erdogan's Turkey has undoubtedly grown, but this has been to the detriment of the country's economy. Thus, the Turkish Lira has lost, in 5 years, more than half of its value against the Euro or the dollar, a trajectory similar to that of the Russian ruble, without economic sanctions. Unemployment rose from 8,5% in 2011 to more than 14% in the summer of 2019, concentrating, as often, on young people. After a period of strong growth between 1990 and 2013, the country's GDP increased from $950 billion (2013) to $850 billion (2015) and only managed to return to low growth from 2018, while investments foreign countries were divided by 2 compared to the 2000s, and do not seem to show signs of significant recovery.
In fact, if the Turkish offensive were to falter in the face of the Kurdish defenses, or if the Europeans and the American Congress were to implement severe sanctions against the country's economy, the Turkish president could quickly find himself very weakened politically. We can also wonder, what would be the impact of measures with strong symbolic value, such as the definitive cessation of negotiations concerning the country's accession to the EU, or a procedure for exclusion from NATO, on the sustainability of the Turkish president to his post. One thing is certain, Europeans can no longer be content with formal declarations towards President Erdogan, who behaves neither like a friend nor like an ally.
PS: Through the voice of the Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, France joins the countries which have already put Turkey under a Defense systems embargo. Franco-Turkish Defense exchanges are few in number, but this announcement could potentially put an end to the Turkish medium-range surface-to-air missile program in which MBDA was to participate. Germany, through its Minister of Foreign Affairs Heiko Maas, did the same a few hours ago, joining Norway, Sweden, Finland, the Netherlands, and France. On the other hand, the two main European suppliers of defense technologies, the United Kingdom which participates in the TFX program, and Italy with, in particular, the T-129 Attak helicopter, have not announced sanctions at this time.