Le Rafale is on the rise in India, and we are even witnessing a certain Rafale-Mania in the media, which contrasts with the incessant attacks, and sometimes wacky, on the program and the apparatus carried out by the opposition to Prime Minister N. Modi last year, against the backdrop of a national legislative campaign. But since then, Prime Minister Modi has won these elections, and even obtained, with his party, the absolute majority in parliament, the first Rafale Indian was officially ceded to the IAF by Dassault, and several indiscretions suggest that a new order, this time assembled in India, would be in preparation, and could be announced during President Macron's visit to New Delhi on January 26, 2020 on the occasion of the country's national day.
When signing the first order for 36 devices, French manufacturers had committed to reinvesting 50% of the order amount, or nearly €4 billion, in the aeronautics and Indian Defense industry. Among them, Safran, the French aircraft engine specialist, which designed and manufactures, among others, the M88 which powers the Rafale, had announced that it would participate in the design and manufacture of the Kaveri turbojet, the first Indian-made reactor, which was then encountering numerous difficulties, both in terms of performance and reliability. The program was then considered critical by the Indian authorities, since the engine was to equip the Tejas Mk2 light aircraft program, and the AMCA next generation aircraft program.
But where Dassault Aviation, Thales and MBDA managed to deploy an effective economic model for their investments and their integration into the Indian ecosystem, SAFRAN, for its part, found itself locked in very difficult negotiations with the DRDO, the Indian Defense research department, which is piloting the Kaveri program, as well as with the authorities and manufacturers. In the end, the French engine manufacturer was unable to find favorable negotiating ground with its interlocutors, and gradually withdrew from the program, leaving the Kaveri without a solution. Since then, Indian authorities have announced that the Tejas Mk2 would be equipped with the American F404, like the Mk1, and that the Kaveri would not be selected to equip the future AMCA program either.
But the new negotiations underway regarding the Rafale could well change the situation, as indicated the visit of the Indian Minister of Defense, Rajnath Singh, to the Safran premises in Villaroche, which followed the official transfer ceremony of the first Rafale Indian event which was held the day before in Bordeaux. Although no announcement was made during the visit, its mere existence shows that the Indian minister, who has already left his mark on his ministry by simplifying part of the Indian administrative maze for procedures acquisition of arms from abroad, does not close the door to new negotiations which would therefore be held at political level. At the end of the visit, the Indian minister made a point ofsend a message to French industrialists, and particularly to Safran, specifying that from now on there existed two corridors of technological companies offering attractive conditions for technological investments, and above all by emphasizing India's needs in terms of aircraft engines, whether military or civil.
Many voices are being raised in India not to abandon the aspect of the Indian aeronautical program, considered, rightly, as essential for the strategic and technological autonomy of the country. Indeed, and we see this with China, the technology of military aircraft engines is particularly difficult to master, and today, very few countries know how to design this type of propellant. The United States, Russia, Great Britain and France have the required experience and know-how, and China, following a very significant investment, and a lot of reverse engineering of Russian engines, barely manages to produce barely efficient engines. In fact, Safran's support in the design of the Kaveri could well be an unexpected opportunity for New Delhi to develop its aeronautical industry as a whole, without depending on external arbitration, and Rajnath Singh is, obviously, perfectly aware of this.
There are still many unknowns in this matter, and Safran's return to the Kaveri program is still distant and uncertain. But the framework that is emerging today is obviously much more favorable than it was a year ago, and the opportunities that emerge, both on the Indian and French sides, invite optimism. This, with India, you are never sure of anything...