This is information that should be taken with extreme caution, revealed by the Indian blogger @Aryanwarlord on Twitter, generally well informed and close to the power of Narenda Modi. According to him, the Indian government is about to place a global order for 200 planes Rafale, i.e. 114 aircraft for the MMRCA II contract for the Air Force, 57 Rafale M for Indian naval aviation, and 29 aircraft to complete the 36 already ordered, and completely replace the Mirage 2000 fleet by 2030.
This contract would reach the pharaonic amount of $30 billion, broken down over 12 years between 2022 and 2024. Production will have to be done 75% in India, which corresponds to what Dassault and its partners had been preparing for several years, and which will enable Indian industry to strengthen itself in many areas. An article from another source, seems to go in the same direction, although the hypothesis of transfer of the assembly line Rafale in India seems quite surprising to me, not to say irrelevant.
The opportunities for collaboration will not end at the end of the contract, since there would already be discussions about the AMCA program, the Indian 5th generation aircraft program due to see the light of day in the 2030s.
Finally, the announced presence of the Indian Prime Minister in Biarritz at the invitation of the French President on the occasion of the G7, to talk about “military cooperation” (among other things), seems to create a set of solid presumptions. All that remains is to reach a possible confirmation, or denial, from one of the actors. This announcement could also serve President Modi's interests in domestic politics, by greatly discrediting his opponents who had previously tried to exploit the contract for political purposes. Furthermore, in these times of tensions with Pakistan and China, the need to renew the Indian air force had become critical, and the Indian Air Force had continued to highlight the performance of the aircraft. from Dassault.
On the other hand, it would be a huge blow for the Americans, who hoped to take advantage of this contract to definitively tip India into the Western camp. The reaction of the United States to this possible announcement will certainly be interesting, and it would not be surprising to see threats of application of CAATSA resurface regarding New Delhi's order of Russian S400s.
To be followed with interest, therefore…