Just days after an MQ-9 Reaper drone, which was monitoring the Strait of Hormuz, was targeted by what appears to be a modified SA-7 missile, fired from an Iranian boat, US authorities have recognized the destruction of a MALE RQ-4 Global Hawk drone (and not MQ-4C as previously declared) which was carrying out an intelligence mission in this same strait. According to the American version, the aircraft was destroyed in international airspace, while obviously, according to the Iranian version, it had penetrated the country's airspace.
This is an additional step in the increase in tensions between the two countries in the area, this coming as the Iranian Prime Minister has just clarified that the 60-day deadline negotiated between Iran and the actors of the agreement on the country's renunciation of the production of nuclear weapons would not be extended, posing an additional threat to peace in the region. On this subject, the head of French diplomacy, JY Le Drian, said this morning that, although there was still time to reach an agreement, no agreement was yet in sight with Tehran.
The same problem is at play in this issue as in the North Korean issue, or, even if it is not the same consequences, in the Turkish issue. The American pressures are such that the governments which are the subject of it have no possibility of finding a way out without altering their strong image vis-à-vis their population, and therefore preserving their sustainability. Thus, it is inconceivable for the Iranian authorities, also contested by the country's youth, to show signs of weakness, even in the face of the United States, at the risk of putting themselves in serious danger. From then on, the only options are, like those that were left to S.Hussein in his time, war against the United States or civil war, or even both, as in the Iraqi case.
In the absence of a profound change in American diplomatic approach, whether towards “traditional enemies” like Iran or North Korea, great powers like Russia and China, or its allies , like Turkey and even the European Union, not only does the country risk gradually isolating itself on the international scene, but the risks of confrontations, even global confrontations, which continue to grow, may end up converting into confrontations real military. In this respect, we can draw a parallel between the trajectory of the United States over the last 100 years, and the Roman Empire between the 1st and 4th centuries which, through the pressure and intransigence it showed towards its vassals as when faced with his adversaries, ends up collapsing on his own certainties.