After the “Le Drian” years, having seen French exports go from €4 billion in 2012 to €17 billion in 2015 and €15 billion in 2016, the year 2018 recorded a very significant decrease in exported volumes, limited to 7 billion €. The rebound recorded in 2018, with €9,1 billion in orders, therefore corresponds more to a return to the mean than to progression. Indeed, out of a business volume of €20 billion per year, the French BITD exports, on average over the last 10 years, half of it, allowing the Defense industry to generate 13% of the industrial volumes produced each year. , and manage an ecosystem of 200.000 employees, plus subcontractors and resulting jobs. In total, there are more than 500.000 people whose employment is linked to the National Defense industry.
2018, however, was remarkable, with the promulgation of the “CaMo”[efn_note]Motorized Capacities[/efn_note] contract with Belgium, representing an expected return of European countries among France's major partners in the defense industry. Beyond the 417 VBMR Griffon and 60 EBRC Jaguar ordered by Brussels, this contract also represents a first step in the integration of the French and Belgian armies into a European tactical collaborative sphere. France had not recorded a major order from a European country since that of 55 Mirage 2000 by Greece. In addition to this Belgian order, there is also that of Spain for 12 European NH90 helicopters assembled in France.
On the other hand, the Middle East continues to represent almost half of French order intake, with more than €4 billion for 2018. For many, these are contracts linked to the maintenance and modernization of equipment already in use. service, but the region continues to be the lung of the BITD, with an order of 12 Rafale additional by Qatar, and light patrol boats by the Saudi Navy. While moral considerations continue to enter the public and political debate, this dependence on exports to contested partners represents a proven threat to the sustainability of the French defense industry.
Indeed, if we can rejoice, as the Minister of the Armed Forces Florence Parly does, at the successes of French Defense industries on the international scene, we cannot ignore the dependence which is created, vis-à-vis customers inherently versatile. Furthermore, while France is increasing its collaboration programs at the European level, French exports could be threatened by these same partners who, as we can see, have a different agenda in terms of exports. Added to these two risks is the threat posed by the arrival of new players, such as Turkey, South Korea, and especially China, with aggressive offers and immense ambitions.
The solution would come not from the reduction of exports in value, but from the relative share that they represent in the BITD's activity, and, consequently, by the increase in national orders, which are also essential to confer on the French armed forces the ability to defend the country and its interests.