If the visible power of the US Navy is based on its 10 super nuclear aircraft carriers, and the hundred cruisers and destroyers that accompany them, it is above all the fifty or so nuclear attack submarines of the Los Angeles class and Virginia which assures him an almost exclusive control of the seas of the globe.
However, as in many areas, the renewal of the submarine component has been neglected over the past 20 years, losing its appeal with the supposed disappearance of conflicts between nations, in the face of large-scale anti-terrorist operations such as in Afghanistan and in Iraq / Syria. If today the US Navy perceives on average 2 Virginia submarines per year, it withdraws from service 2,5 Los Angeles arriving at the age limit.
Instead of the 66 attack submarines requested by the military command to be able to carry out all the missions, in 2028 it will only have 42 SSNs.
At the same time, Russia, and especially China, have undertaken to modernize and above all strengthen their own submarine forces, as well as their anti-submarine warfare means. Russia has thus undertaken to develop 3 new classes of attack submarines, the Lada, a conventional submarine with an AIP module, the Yasen, a nuclear submarine launching cruise missiles, and the future Husky, who will take over from SSN Akula. At the same time, it continues to commission conventional submarines of project 638.3 Improoved Kilo. In addition, it is strengthening its ASW surface fleet, with numerous corvettes equipped for this mission in shallow water, such as the Baltic Sea and Black Sea.
The Chinese strategy is substantially comparable to the Russian strategy, but has greater resources. If China today only has 8 nuclear attack submarines, it also has around fifty conventional submarines, including 17 Type 039A Yuan, equipped with an AIP module significantly extending their diving autonomy. Above all, China launches between 2 and 3 new submersibles each year, and this figure is expected to increase, with the modernization of the Wuchang shipyards having only just finished.
In addition, the PLA has put into service in recent years no less than 20 ASM Type 056A corvettes, and 28 Type 054A frigates, each equipped with a hull sonar and a variable depth sonar, ASM torpedoes and 'a helicopter.
If the American SSN maintains the advantage in the open sea, they find themselves in an unfavorable situation when they have to face these fleets in areas such as the Baltic, in the Mediterranean, or around the Island of Taiwan. It can obviously count on its allies, such as Japan and its 18 attack submarines, or European countries, which have nearly sixty attack submarines of all types. But in the case of a conflict around the Taiwanese island, for example, nothing guarantees Washington the intervention of Tokyo, Seoul or Canberra.
The entry into service of new generation submarines, such as the French and Australian Barracuda, the Turkish Type 214 or 212 NG in Italy, Germany and Norway, will allow the US Navy to delay for a while. But the Chinese Navy seems determined to continue its effort, to be able to impose itself on what it considers to be its own zone of influence. It would therefore be surprising if production of new Chinese submarines, like its new ASW vessels, did not decline in the near future.
From then on, the United States will be obliged, in the short term, to redefine their production schedule for submersibles, as well as surface units, otherwise they will lose, for a time at least, the naval supremacy which was the hallmark of their power since the end of the Second World War.