According to the CBS channel, and as we had widely anticipated, the United States, through the voice of its Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, will announce suspending their participation in the INF treaty, binding the United States and Russia so as not to develop or deploy any 'strategic weapons of intermediate range, with 500 and 5000 km of range.
For several weeks, and even several months, it was clear that the United States had no intention of remaining bound by this treaty, while other potential adversaries such as China, Iran or North Korea , were not. And in fact, the whole of the argument made around the Russian Novator missile was only a staging aimed at justifying this withdrawal.
This decision quickly led to numerous reactions. On the Russian side, obviously, we officially regret the thing, even if Russia has maintained significant technical know-how in short-range ballistic missiles, and will therefore be able to quickly replenish its fleet of intermediate-range missiles. . Furthermore, due to the mastery of hypersonic vectors that it has demonstrated with the Kinjal and Avangard systems, it is likely that the next Russian intermediate-range ballistic vectors will also have these capabilities in terms of speed and maneuverability.
On the Western side, many observers fear that this exit will re-trigger a new arms race. This is in fact largely underestimating the current situation, because the arms race has indeed already resumed, for several years now. And if the West was somewhat delayed in starting up, now all the countries in the Western camp have undertaken the reconstruction of their defense potential, with sometimes very significant increases in defense budgets.
To give just a few figures, the United States now produces 1 aircraft carrier every 3 years, 2 destroyers and 2 submarines per year, and 130 combat aircraft each year. In Russia, 120 combat planes, 2 submarines, 200 heavy tanks and 2000 armored vehicles of all types are delivered each year. This year, China will deliver 7 destroyers and heavy destroyers, more than 20 major surface ships, while its air force will receive more than 80 modern combat aircraft.
In addition, R&D credits and programs aimed at preparing the next generation of combat systems have more than doubled in 5 years worldwide. And all the armies of the world, even the least combative, have undertaken to strengthen their operational preparation, and to improve their efficiency and responsiveness.
In fact, the withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty will in no way trigger an arms race, nor even an increase in global insecurity. This is, in reality, the consequence of developments observed over the last 10 years in the world.